Issue #51 - Asia Pacific’s Top 6 Travel Talking Points in 2021 So Far
Issue #51 - Asia Pacific’s Top 6 Travel Talking Points in 2021 So Far
6 hot topics from Australia, China, Indonesia, New Zealand, Singapore and Thailand.
Hello. Welcome to the 51st edition of Asia Travel Re:Set…
Firstly, a BIG thank you to everyone who has contributed to and read any of the first 50 issues of this newsletter. I am extremely grateful. It makes all the effort worthwhile.
Travel and tourism in Asia Pacific continues to traverse an uncertain journey. Almost one-third through the 8th month of 2021, and the regional situation remains surreal.
As mentioned last week, turning 50 inspired a mode of reflection.
So here is Part II of the Half-Century Roundup, which tracks 6 key themes of 2021.
Thanks for being on board,
Gary
The Sunday Itinerary
- This Week’s Top 6
Indonesia, Thailand, New Zealand, China, Japan, South Korea
- Asia Pacific’s Top 6 Travel Talking Points in 2021 So Far…
Marking last week’s 50th edition of Asia Travel Re:Set, the 2nd part of the Half-Century Roundup sets out 6 defining travel themes so far in 2021…
Thailand’s Phuket Sandbox Gamble
Delta Variant Reaches China
Suspension of the Australia-New Zealand Bubble
ASEAN’s Air Traffic Collapse Continues
Is Bali Ready To Reopen?
Everyone is Watching Singapore
This Week’s Top 6
UNESCO urges Indonesia to discontinue development of a so-called “Jurassic Park” at the Komodo National Park on Rinca Island.
Take your pick: Tourism Authority of Thailand forecasts total arrivals in 2021 could slump to 1 million. Thailand’s Finance Ministry predicts just 300,000.
New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern is not optimistic about reopening the Trans-Tasman bubble after an 8-week suspension: “We will not reopen that bubble until we believe it is safe to do so. But right now, obviously, it’s clearly not safe.”
China hits the Delta variant red alert: “Airports, harbours and land borders should be closely guarded to prevent imported cases. International travellers and cargos should be strictly separated from spaces where local people can enter.”
Japan estimates 40.0 million domestic travel trips during the summer, only slightly up from 38.0 million in 2020, and way down from 72.4 million in 2019.
South Korea steps up “BTS Tourism”, with a destination guide for local (and, later, inbound) travellers inspired by the world’s biggest band.
Asia Pacific’s Top 6 Travel Talking Points in 2021 So Far…
1) Thailand’s Phuket Sandbox Gamble
Thailand’s drawn-out reopening of Phuket - to be followed gradually by more islands and, later, the mainland - is 2021’s biggest travel gambit so far. Phuket kicked it all off on 1 July, and Ko Samui reopened on 15 July. In the first month, Phuket received 14,055 Sandbox visitors. Up to 6 August, Ko Samui counted just 198 direct arrivals. Day trips are permitted to Ko Pha Ngan (8 visitors so far) and Ko Tao (6). This was planned as a long-term strategy, aiming to build momentum for the December-March peak season. However, 339,708 hotel room nights are booked for July-Sept, and just 8,625 from Oct-Feb. With a low vaccination rate and the Delta variant rampant, the return of direct tourism to the Thai mainland is receding into late-year, at the earliest.
I was interviewed this week by CNN Travel’s “Unlocking the World” series to assess the regional impact of Thailand’s Phuket Sandbox strategy. CLICK TO READ HERE
2) Delta Variant Reaches China
Anyone hoping for a return of Chinese tourists to South East Asia in 2021 - forget it. ASEAN’s battle against the Delta variant continues to see record daily infections in Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. Indonesia and the Philippines face a huge task to vaccinate populations of 272 million and 122 million, respectively. Piecing together the scale of the COVID crisis in Myanmar is tricky. Previously COVID-safe Cambodia and Laos are struggling. Now, China is confronting the Delta variant after a year of COVID safety. A cluster at Nanjing Airport sparked a national alert. While daily infections remain comparatively low (107 on 7 August, 96 on 8 August), cities like Zhengzhou and Wuhan are being mass tested. Flights to Beijing were suspended on Friday from several cities, including Chengdu, Haikou, Shenyang and Yangzhou. Late-summer domestic trips are being cancelled en masse. China is taking this extremely seriously.
CLICK TO LISTEN: The South East Asia Travel Show - July in Review: The Delta Variant Spreads Across ASEAN & Asia Pacific
CLICK TO READ: Issue #37: South East Asia’s Troubling COVID-19 Resurgence
3) Suspension of the Australia-New Zealand Bubble
Initially proposed in late-April 2020, the Australia-New Zealand travel bubble took off on 16 October 2020 - albeit 1-way. New Zealanders could fly into (a selected number of states) in Australia without enduring a quarantine. The 1-way bubble expanded across Australia before becoming a fully functioning 2-way corridor - the 1st in Asia Pacific - on 19 April 2021. Bad news was around the corner, given low vaccination rates in the 2 countries. Delta variant outbreaks in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria saw New Zealand lock-off the entire operation for a minimum of 8 weeks on 23 July. The bubble had boosted air capacity in Southwest Pacific to -36% of the January 2020 (pre-pandemic) level in early June. This week it slumped to -62.9%.
CLICK TO READ: Previous Australia, New Zealand & Cook Islands travel bubble coverage: Issue #46, Issue #41, Issue #32 & Issue #12
Spectacular Laos has been overshadowed by more prominent South East Asian destinations promoting their tourism reopening plans. Laos intends to set in motion its own strategy. On this week’s The South East Asia Travel Show, we discuss the year so far in Laos with Jason Rolan, Senior Partner of Vientiane-based RDK Group. Topics range from exciting new trends in domestic travel to the benefits of the Vientiane-Vang Vieng expressway, and the upcoming China-Laos high-speed railway.
4) ASEAN’s Air Traffic Collapse Continues
The long-term pause of inbound and outbound travel (since March 2020) and recurrent lockdowns are decimating South East Asia’s aviation sector. Darkness still prevails. This week, South East Asia’s scheduled airline capacity operated at -78.2% below the week of 20 January 2020, according to figures from OAG. Malaysia is the worst-hit air market, registering -92.8% capacity this week vs 20/01/2020. Following Malaysia are Thailand (-84.8%), Singapore (-82.9%), Philippines (-75.3%)) and Vietnam (-74.7%). Just reflect on those figures for a moment! The road back to even a partial recovery in ASEAN is starting to lengthen, and looks ever-more arduous.
“Nine country markets [all in Asia Pacific except Oman] remain at less than 30% of their normal capacity levels with the wide geographic spread highlighting the global challenges yet to be faced.” John Grant, Chief Analyst, OAG
CLICK TO LISTEN: OAG Webinar with John Grant, Becca Rowland & Gary Bowerman - How to Manage Supply as Air Travel Demand Picks Up
5) Is Bali Ready To Reopen?
Bali was originally scheduled to welcome back international visitors on 11 September 2020. A surging infection rate across Indonesia saw that target postponed to July 2021. The second attempt also stalled, given Bali’s failure to reach its vaccination threshold and the Delta variant spreading fast across South East Asia’s largest country. Bali is gearing up for a third attempt. This week, local media reported that Bali is petitioning the Indonesian government for a reopening go-ahead as early as this month. Green light approval depends on the vaccination rate. Currently, 3.088 million Bali residents have received a 1st dose (90.69%), but only 1.083 million have received a 2nd dose.
6) Everyone is Watching Singapore
It’s been an up-and-down year in Singapore. An accelerated vaccine rollout (albeit for a population of just 5.7 million) offers hope for normalising life once more. Two COVID-19 clusters, though, brought new movement restrictions in July. Overlapping this, the government wants to transition to an “Endemic Covid” framework (including quarantine-free travel for vaccinated travellers) once Singapore hits an 80% fully vaccinated threshold by early September. Some 3.616 million residents had received 2 doses by 4 August. As Singapore zones in on a 70% vaccination rate target by its National Day (9 August), the government issued a 4-step charter towards a “COVID Resilient Nation.” It also granted quarantine-free travel status to residents of Taiwan.
“We will progressively review some of our border restrictions to facilitate more travel and introduce vaccination-differentiated border measures for travellers from countries/regions that have shown an ability to control the pandemic and vaccinate large parts of their population.”
The entire region is watching Singapore’s next moves.
CLICK TO READ: Issue #44 Who Will Lead South East Asia's Travel Recovery?
CLICK TO LISTEN: The South East Asia Travel Show - The Year So Far in Singapore, with Karen Yue, Group Editor, TTG Asia
And, that’s a wrap for Issue 51 - and the 2-part Half-Century Roundup.
Asia Travel Re:Set is taking a recharge break for the next 2 Sundays.
Back (fit and firing) on 29 August.
Until then, you can find me on Twitter, LinkedIn, and the Asia Travel Re:Set website.
Have a great (couple of) week(s),
Gary