Issue #44 - Who Will Lead South East Asia's Travel Recovery?
Issue #44 - Who Will Lead South East Asia's Travel Recovery?
"As a group of airlines, we are currently operating at 1% internationally of pre-COVID levels."
Hello. Welcome to Asia Travel Re:Set…
Quote 1
“With better contact tracing, wider testing and more vaccinations. With these new abilities, let’s hope we can put the Circuit Breaker as a response behind us,”Singapore’s Health Minister Ong Ye Kung.
Quote 2
“The lockdown will be extended for another two weeks, effective from June 15 to 28,” Malaysia’s Senior Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob.
There are many differences between Malaysia and Singapore, notably population size, land mass and cost of living. The two nations are neighbours with a complex history and strong cross-border people flows. The causeway is Singapore’s only land border.
Right now, they are world’s apart on the COVID-19 timeline. Malaysia has 76,247 active cases. Singapore 433.
Singapore’s technocratic strategy has become gradually more effective at identifying, isolating and shutting down clusters as they emerge. It has also been clearly and effectively communicated at every stage.
Malaysia is languishing in its third national lockdown, with the highest per-million infection rate in the region. Public anger and confusion are widespread and it appears the government is relying on vaccination as a singular route out of COVID-19.
Singapore and Malaysia highlight the spectrum of pandemic responses across South East Asia. Little regional cooperation has occurred between the 10 countries.
It’s striking that the ASEAN nations seeking to reboot tourism and drive a national economic recovery are currently looking at inbound markets beyond the region.
Thanks for being on board,
Gary
The Sunday Itinerary
- DashBoard
From 129,000 down to 2 in Thailand this week
- QuoteBoard
Vietnam’s air sector, Garuda Indonesia, Domestic travel restrictions in Thailand
- Who Will Lead South East Asia’s Travel Recovery?
An express sweep through 6 ASEAN nations this week
Cambodia to Reopen in Q4?
Bali Puts on the Brakes
Malaysia’s Ongoing Travel Woes
Phuket Sandbox Awaits Green Light in Thailand
Singapore’s Bubble Frenzy
Vietnam Rolls Back the SEA Games
DashBoard
From 129,000 down to 2 in Thailand this week…
129,000: Forecast total of visitors to Phuket from July-Sept 2021.
50%: Percentage of hotels in Phuket that are currently “shut down or partly
working.”30-40%: Projected hotel occupancy in Phuket during the high season from
Dec 2020-March 2021.6%: Hotel occupancy nationwide in Thailand during May.
2: Estimated minimum number of years required for Phuket’s hotel sector to “rehabilitate” after COVID-19.
Source: Information provided by Tourism Authority of Thailand, Thai Hotels Association, Phuket Hotels Association & Association of Thai Travel Agents during the Taking Another Shot: Vaccinations, Opening Borders and Restarting Tourism in Thailand webinar (Foreign Correspondent’s Club of Thailand).
QuoteBoard
You heard it here…
“Vietnam is the largest capacity loser across the top 20 markets from a percentage perspective with a 19% drop in capacity [this week]; at some 703,000 seats a week the country is now at 45% of its pre-pandemic levels.”
“Will Jakarta keep Garuda alive? It will definitely try. Herein lies the crux of the problem with perennially loss-making airlines in South East Asia: many are run by emotions than by logic.”
“Because of the domestic travel restrictions in Thailand right now, it almost gives the Phuket authorities cover to limit domestic travel to the province so they can try to keep COVID-19 out and keep foreign tourists from being exposed to it.”
David Luekens, Thai Island Times [speaking on The South East Asia Travel Show]
Thailand is central to the tourism debate right now. To check the reopening pulse in Phuket (and Koh Samui and Chiang Mai), we chat with David Luekens, Bangkok-based travel journalist and creator of the Thai Island Times. Will Thailand take the bold reopening steps it has been promising - and, if so, what might happen next?
- Who Will Lead South East Asia’s Travel Recovery?
An express sweep through 6 ASEAN nations this week.
Part I: Cambodia, Indonesia & Malaysia
Cambodia’s stated position is that it wants to reopen to vaccinated package tourists from “low-risk countries” in the 4th quarter of 2021. The Tourism Board says it is working on a policy proposal.
An initial post-pandemic roadmap, published in late 2020, set out 3 scenarios (depending on the timing of vaccine delivery) whereby Cambodia could attract between 528,847 and 2,578,131 inbound visitors in 2021. That document is likely to be reconstructed from scratch.
In the meantime, Cambodia aims to achieve herd immunity early in 2022. The tourism sector, though, is in “a state of clinical death,” according to The Phnom Penh Post (which quotes me and my The South East Asia Travel Show co-host, Hannah Pearson).
Meanwhile, with Vietnam rolling back on hosting the 2021 South East Asian Games (see below), Cambodia - which has a new Chinese-developed national stadium under construction - says the May 2023 SEA Games in Phnom Penh are game-on.
Relentless speculation and plenty of scene-setting articles and interviews, but still not much clarity on Indonesia’s Bali reopening timeline.
Bali was covered extensively in last week’s Issue #43, and there is not a great deal new to report. That said, my prediction that:
“Bali looks less certain, primarily because of a much larger population to inoculate before the planes land. A further delay is possible to administer the necessary jabs.”
… appears to have held.
This week, Bali governor Wayan Koster requested more vaccines from the central government along with financial and logistical support for the travel sector. The target now is to reopen “on a limited basis” towards the end of July, reports The Bali Beat.
Elsewhere, debt-laden national carrier Garuda is grounding two-thirds of its fleet. [An interesting analysis of its complicated woes is here.]
“Malaysia is having a terrible time” headlined Dari Mulut ke Mulut this week.
Hard to disagree as deep political divisions are being blamed for the government being unable to gain control of COVID-19. With a two-week extension to the national lockdown announced this week, domestic and international travel face a bleak future.
This week, AirAsia’s Group COO, Javed Anwar Malik, told CAPALive that the region’s largest LCC is not expecting all 17 domestic Malaysian airports (from which it operates) to be fully operational until late October.
The 3rd national lockdown, he said, has been “quite devastating”:
“AirAsia in Malaysia is currently operating about about 9% of domestic capacity. As a group of airlines, we are operating at around 6% domestically, and 1% internationally of pre-COVID levels.”
Golf and casino tourism were booming in Asia Pacific before COVID-19 - but both sectors face uncertain futures. This week, we chat with Bill Healey, an experienced golf and casino tourism expert. Bill reflects on the growth trajectories in recent years, the various challenges being faced today and a potential timeline for recovery.
Part II: Singapore, Thailand & Vietnam
Another busy ‘bubble’ forming week in Singapore. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong hosted Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison - who was en route to the G7 Summit in the UK.
Cue plenty of amiable wordplay about “working together” and “putting the systems in place” to create an Australia-Singapore travel bubble. The kickstart could be enabling international students back into Australia as a pilot project.
Then came the inevitable rejoinders:
“But the timing of that is still some way away.” (Australia)
“There's no timetable, but we hope it can be done as soon as possible.” (Singapore)
The barrier to jump is the differentiated pace of vaccination between the 2 countries.
Meanwhile, speculation resumed about a vaccinated Singapore-South Korea-Taiwan travel bubble. Talks are due to be “expedited.” Is July viable for the kick-off?
Talking of July, Singapore and Hong Kong said they plan to revisit their twice-postponed bilateral air travel bubble next month.
And so to Thailand. Relentless speculation and plenty of scene-setting articles and interviews, but no official rubber-stamp for the Phuket Sandbox plan to welcome vaccinated international and Thai tourists.
It does, however, seem set to commence on 1 July.
This week, Chattan Kinjara Na Ayudhya, Deputy Governor Asia & South Pacific of the Tourism Authority of Thailand, told a debate hosted by the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand that cabinet approval may given on 20 June.
That meeting is now likely to be on 22 May, with Royal Gazette publication a few days later. This would give the authorities maximum available time to increase local inoculations before official approval is granted.
He added that the reopening would be “a gradual process”:
“The Phuket Sandbox is not the culmination, it’s just the beginning. Phuket is chosen because it is an international tourism destination… it’s always in-demand… Because it is an island, it is deemed to be suitable to open in COVID-19 times as control can be easier than a destination that has access from so many ways, and it also has a really good medical system.”
Kasikorn Research Centre estimates the Phuket Sandbox could bring “550,000 to 1.2 million foreign tourists in the best-case scenario in 2021.”
Like Bali, hitting the threshold for local vaccinations is tricky. The Tourism Authority of Thailand website says the target inoculation figure is 466,587.
As an adjunct to the Phuket Sandbox (which requires a minimum 14-day stay before travelling onwards in Thailand), Koh Samui has set forth a Surat Thani proposition alongside Koh Phangan and Koh Tao. The objective is to welcome tourists who have spent 7 days in Phuket to the islands, commencing on 1 August.
In other news, Thailand has shelved its golf quarantine programme for Thai and foreign golfers “until the COVID-19 situation improves.”
Finally, let’s check in on Vietnam. The government has proposed postponing the 2021 South East Asian Games, set to take place in Hanoi from 21 Nov-2 Dec, citing the “complicated development of COVID-19.”
The move has been interpreted as a sign that Vietnam may not reopen to tourism in 2021. That aside, the SEA Games struggled to attract sponsors, not least because the delayed 2020 Tokyo Olympics resulted in the two events being hosted in the same year.
Meanwhile, Vietnamese tourism destinations are cautiously reopening to intra-provincial travellers after the “4th Wave” began to slow.
The government appears to be favouring Phu Quoc as a Phuket-style pilot reopening destination.
Also this week, Vietnam was included on the list of “Low-Risk - Level 1” countries for US travellers produced by the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC).
Low Risk - Level 1 countries in ASEAN are Brunei, Laos, Singapore & Vietnam
Level 2 - Moderate is Cambodia
High Risk - Level 3 are Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines & Thailand
The CDC recommends US citizens “Avoid travel to Burma” (Myanmar).
And, that’s a wrap for Issue 44.
Until next Sunday, you can find me on Twitter, LinkedIn, and the Asia Travel Re:Set website.
Have a great week,
Gary