Issue #40 - Bubbles, Budgets & Backtracks: Asia Pacific is Torn Over Travel
"A global pandemic was on every airline’s risk register that I know of."
Hello. Welcome to Asia Travel Re:Set…
“An eliminationist bunker.” “‘False idol’ of eradication.” “Tipping point.”
Forget Phuket, Bali and Singapore-Hong Kong, the region’s most vociferous border reopening debate is developing in Australia.
As always Down Under, the opinions expressed are forthright and vigorous. Given the current strategic stasis across Asia Pacific - with next-to-zero media pushback in many countries - stimulating multi-dimensional debate should be viewed positively.
The 3 quotes above are from a speech this week by Dr Nick Coatsworth, Australia’s former Deputy Chief Medical Officer, to the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons. Advocating a contextual rethink of the so-called “Fortress Australia” policy, he admitted his forceful language would make many people feel “uncomfortable.”
One month into the 2-way Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble, and after a Budget statement widely reported as “cautious” regarding the resumption of international travel - Australia will be an intriguing market to watch during the upcoming winter.
The debate will focus on the lucrative Australian summer, which has been wrecked for the past two years by the Black Summer bushfires (2019-20) and COVID-19 (2020-21). Expect a shifting seasonal debate in New Zealand, too, about its border policy.
Next Sunday, I’ll take a more detailed look at the key issues up ahead for Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands region.
Thanks for being on board,
Gary
The Sunday Itinerary
- DashBoard
From 167,000 down to 10 in Asia Pacific this week
- QuoteBoard
The ever-quotable Willie Walsh x 3
- Bubbles, Budgets & Backtracks
Updates from Singapore-Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Japan, Maldives, Seychelles & Sri Lanka
DashBoard
From 167,000 down to 10 in Asia Pacific this week…
167,000: Visitors to Macao during China’s 5-day May Day public holiday, representing 21.1% of the same 2019 period. [Macao Government Tourism Office]
USD278: The costliest PCR test (in Japan) in a survey of 16 markets by IATA.
USD90: The average PCR test price in a survey of 16 markets by IATA.
USD27: The cheapest PCR test (in Malaysia) in a survey of 16 markets by IATA.
10: Hong Kong released a list of vaccines approved for visitors. These include 5 Chinese vaccines plus Pfizer-Biontech, AstraZenaca, Covishield, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson. [Hong Kong Government]
QuoteBoard
You heard it here…
“Politicians can’t cope with risk, they shy away from it. In the airline industry we manage it. In this crisis, you see some politicians afraid to make decisions because they are afraid of the consequences. In the airline industry we live with that all the time… We know there’s risk associated with everything we do.”
“Reopening borders should not rely solely on vaccinations, because there isn’t going to be an even rollout of vaccines... In the short to medium term, we believe there should be a relaxation of the rules because of vaccination but also enabling people to travel when you can put effective testing mechanisms in place.”
“We’ll see something like this again. A global pandemic was on every airline’s risk register that I know of. We had all done the table-top exercises about what was going to happen. The one thing we didn't expect was that governments globally would shut down… to effectively make international aviation stop.”
Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, doesn’t hold back on his opinions during this week’s interview with CAPA Live.
Bubbles, Budgets & Backtracks
Another week of mixed messages show how torn Asia Pacific is over travel.
Singapore-Hong Kong
Not unexpectedly, the 26 May re-float of the Singapore-Hong Kong travel bubble seems likely to be postponed. Originally slated to launch on 22 November last year, version 2.0 was scheduled for take off in 10 days time.
The backtrack comes from the Singapore side, due to cluster outbreaks including Changi International Airport. On Friday, Transport Minister, Ong Ye Kung, admitted:
"It is very likely that Singapore will not be able to meet the resumption criteria.”
Australia & New Zealand
Next to Australia, where the 2021-2022 Budget Statement on 11 May reaffirmed the news the tourism sector was primed to anticipate:
“The rate of international arrivals will continue to be constrained by state and territory quarantine caps over 2021 and the first half of 2022, with the exception of passengers from Safe Travel Zones.”
As a result:
“Inbound and outbound international travel is expected to remain low through to mid-2022, after which a gradual recovery in international tourism is assumed to occur.”
The Budget statement did note that “Small phased programs for international students will commence in late 2021 and gradually increase from 2022.”
The announcement sparked a renewed media debate about the sequenced reopening of Australia’s borders, and the political as well as economic ramifications.
James Goodwin, CEO of the Australian Airports Association, told the Daily Telegraph:
“Australia doesn’t want to be left behind, we need a plan on a staged reopening of borders with other COVID-safe countries to improve our economic outlook and to let Australians reconnect with their families and friends.”
Pending volatile COVID-19 outlooks in Australia’s preferred Asian partner markets, and its own vaccine programme, selective travel bubbles may still launch later in 2021.
Maybe.
Source: Cook Islands Tourism Corporation
Across the Tasman Sea in New Zealand, this week’s most intriguing comments came from Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, hitherto a staunch ‘Zero COVID’ advocate, when quizzed by the media about permitting vaccinated travellers to enter the country.
“We’ll continue to ask the question, is there a point at which we can start letting people into New Zealand based not on us having a bubble arrangement with their country, but because they’ve been vaccinated and they can prove it? That does remain a possibility.”
Don’t hold your breath. New Zealand will not commence its vaccine rollout until July.
Meanwhile, final preparations are under way for the quarantine-free travel bubble with the Cook Islands which starts on 17 May. An interesting clause to the agreement includes Australia:
“Travellers will have to have been in either the Cook Islands or New Zealand for at least 14 days before travel. This means anyone wanting to travel between Australia and the Cook Islands would need to spend at least 14 days in New Zealand in the middle.”
Next week’s Budget may provide pointers of New Zealand’s 2021-22 policy intentions.
Indonesia
Bali remains steadfast about reopening the destinations of Sanur, Ubud and Nusa Dua to inbound arrivals. “We are not at the stage where we need to shift the target, there are still a few months ahead… We're holding on to our focus in July,” Deputy Governor Tjokorda Oka Artha Ardhana Sukawati said this week.
The Sanur section of the ‘Bali Bubble’ may be extended to the neighbouring island of Lombok, plus a trio islands off its north coast, Gili Trawangan, Gili Air and Gili Meno.
Malaysia
Acronyms have had a bad pandemic in Malaysia, where overlapping official euphemisms for ‘lockdown’ - such as MCO (Movement Control Order), RMCO (Recovery Movement Control Order) and CMCO (Conditional Movement Control Order) - continue to cause genuine public confusion.
A new acronym HIDE (Hotspots Identification for Dynamic Engagement) permits the temporary closure of public venues and malls.
Predictably, it caused more confusion.
On 12 May - just ahead of the Hari Raya Aidilfitri public holiday - Malaysia returned to a national lockdown (MCO) until at least 7 June. Interstate travel was already prohibited since mid January, and inter-district travel is now no longer an option. The nation’s former Deputy Tourism Minister said the travel industry is “facing collapse.”
On 15 May, Malaysia recorded its highest single-day COVID-19 death toll of 44. The Ministry of Health forecasts a potential doubling of daily infections, to 8,000, by June.
Thailand
After the Phuket governor said the island’s proposed reopening for vaccinated visitors “may not materialise” on 1 July, the Tourism Authority of Thailand’s (TAT) ‘finger-in-the-air’ forecast is now 129,00 visitors to Phuket in the first 3 months of reopening.
The primary inbound target has shifted to “long-haul markets,” says the TAT. It may also offer subsidised flight tickets to domestic travellers.
“Should” a broader reopening occur in Thailand later in 2021, “3 to 4 million” arrivals are coveted in Q4. The forecast for domestic tourism trips this year has been revised downward, from 160 million to 100-120 million.
Japan
Long after Japan banned overseas spectators from attending, the flame still flickers for the delayed 2020 Tokyo Olympics. Public sentiment remains against the Games, and Japanese tennis stars Naomi Osaka and Kei Nishikori stated their own uncertainties.
An official from Olympics sponsor Toyota admitted being “pained and worried” given Japan’s COVID-19 turmoil, and the national union of physicians petitioned the government to cancel the event.
This week, Thomas Bach, President of the International Olympic Committee, cancelled a scheduled trip to Japan due to COVID-19 fears.
Against this backdrop, the State of Emergency has been extended until 31 May in Tokyo, Osaka, Hyogo and Kyoto, with 5 prefectures added from today.
Describing hosting the Games as “reckless,” an editorial in The Asahi Shimbun noted:
“Japan is in no state to hold the Tokyo Olympics this summer… Not only Japan, but the entire world is demanding that the Olympics not be allowed as it threatens to become a super-spreader event.”
Maldives, Seychelles & Sri Lanka
Toughening times for 3 island destinations that have reopened for tourism.
This week, Sri Lanka’s 7-day average of COVID-19 infections surpassed 2,000 for the first time. The Ministry of Health responded by introducing a mandatory 14-day quarantine for arrivals regardless of vaccination status, and the government is considering closing Colombo International Airport.
On 13 May, Maldives suspended arrival visas for tourists from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. These restrictions also cover anyone travelling to one of those countries in the past 14 days. A slowdown of arrivals from India saw it slip below Russia as Maldives’ top inbound market.
Source: Ministry of Tourism of Maldives
In Seychelles, France issued a travel advisory for its citizens amid a noticeable rise in COVID-19 infections. In response, President Wavel Ramkalawan undertook a media interview to try to convince visitors about the island’s safety:
“What we can say is that people who are unvaccinated and are against vaccines are those who are sick.”
He also defended the use of the Sinopharm vaccine despite some disquiet about its effectiveness in Seychelles, and took a rather unseemly swipe at Maldives:
“Seychelles is under the microscope because it is a success vaccination story whereas the Maldives, where the occurrence of Covid has doubled in the last week from about 500 to 1200, isn’t.”
Ouch.
How do you summarise recent developments and the outlook for domestic tourism in South East Asia in 7 minutes? Answer: You can't. I overran a little on last week's SCoT Forum, which debated current travel contexts in China, India, Japan and South East Asia and was expertly curated by Xu Jing, former Regional Director of the UNWTO.
Watch HERE - My part starts at the 1 hour, 27 minute mark...
And, that’s a wrap for Issue 40.
Until next Sunday, you can find me on Twitter, LinkedIn, and the Asia Travel Re:Set website.
Meanwhile, this week’s The South East Asia Travel Show was an intriguing chat about promoting Vietnam to Australian travellers during a pandemic.
Have a great week,
Gary