Asia Travel Re:Set #6 - Taking on Tokyo in the [Former] Olympic Year
"For all of us in tourism, 2020 promised to be a phenomenal year."
Hello. Welcome to the midweek edition.
A “36-month event.” That’s how science writer Laurie Garrett described the estimated duration of COVID-19 at this week’s Skift Global Forum.
Meanwhile, the Financial Times forecasts a travel sector “fire sale”, warning: “It will be wiser to accept the world has changed than hold out in hopes of a full recovery.”
The sense of despair deepens.
Today, I spoke at an investor forum surveying the economic damage caused to Asia’s travel sector in 2020. There is simply no nuanced way to describe the number of businesses, jobs and futures that have been wrecked. And the worst is yet to unfold.
As we move into the final quarter, 2020 looks unsalvageable. Thailand is trying its hardest, but the Special Tourist Visa is wrought with risks. And, if you read the fine print, it is basically setting a 12-month target of just 14,400 visitors.
In 2019, Thailand welcomed almost 40 million arrivals.
On a brighter note, today’s issue features a double Japanese delight. ‘People in Travel’ chats with Mac Salman, founder of Tokyo’s Maction Planet tours and experiences firm.
Plus, details of this week’s podcast, which surveys the pre-pandemic growth and future trajectory of tourism in Japan following the postponement of the Tokyo Olympics.
Both offer a hint of brighter times somewhere up ahead.
Thanks for jumping onboard.
Gary
The Midweek Itinerary:
Asia Pacific Travel Snapshots
Australia-New Zealand
Cathay Pacific
Thailand
Philippines
Malaysia
What’s Next for Japan After the Postponed Olympics?
People in Travel #2: Mac Salman, Founder and Lead Guide of Tokyo’s Maction Planet
Feedback: Chinese National Day Holiday Predictions
[Images 1 and 2 image courtesy of JNTO and Air New Zealand]
Asia Pacific Travel Snapshots
Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble Blowout?
It’s almost five months since Australia and New Zealand floated the notion of a bilateral air bubble. The Trans-Tasman Bubble was always likely to be a longer term goal. But not this far in the distance. This week, Greg Foran, CEO of Air New Zealand, kicked the can back across the ‘ditch’. He told Sydney Morning Herald that an agreement between the countries appears unlikely before March 2021, and “could well be longer”.
Several airlines are experimenting with express COVID-19 testing formats, and Cathay Pacific is staking its claim. It has partnered with Hong Kong-based Prenetics, which produced the COVID-19 testing kits that enabled English Premier League and international cricket matches to recommence in the summer. The objective is to develop a digital health passport that would allow travellers to show the results of a negative test on a mobile app before boarding.
Missed the Cathay Pacific analysis in Issue 5? - Read Here
Thailand Creates New Holidays for Travel
Thailand’s citizens are being encouraged to travel and spend domestically during two newly created public holidays. The extended weekends are being promoted as ways of boosting the beleaguered, tourism-reliant economy. They first break will take place from 19-22 November, coinciding with school holidays, and the second will be from 10-13 December. This coincides with Constitution Day on 10 December.
Domestic Travel Corridor in the Philippines
Baguio City, which thrives under the nickname of the Summer Capital, plans to open a domestic travel corridor with the provinces of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union and Pangasinan. Phase one of the pilot project is expected to commence on 22 September. A strict visitor cap will be implemented, with just only 200 tourists permitted daily. Visitors must book overnight hotel accommodation, rather than stay with friends or relatives, while day trips are currently not permitted.
Bonds Raise Alarm Bells for Malaysia Airlines
Malaysian business publication The Edge reported today that the nation’s heavily indebted flag carrier has postponed – for six months – bond payments due on 30 September. Malaysia Airlines will not make the payments to holders of its sukuk bonds until 31 March 2021, at the end of the next six-month cycle. The bonds were issues in 2016 to raise working capital and investment funds.
What’s Next for Japan After the Postponed Olympics?
Japan had – not unreasonably – high hopes for 2020. Last year, saw the country set a record of 31.9 million visitors. That’s pretty impressive given it only surpassed 10 million arrivals for the first time in 2013. Indeed, 2015 was the first year since 1970, that inbound arrivals outpaced the number of Japanese travelling overseas.
If you wind back to the clock to 2013 , when Japan secured the right to host the Tokyo Olympics, tourism officials were tentatively targeting 20 million visitors in 2020.
The critical driver has been China, which supplied 9.6 million visitors last year. Other North East Asian markets, notably South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong, supported the high-octane growth drive. Some 84.5% of visitors last year arrived from Asian countries.
“The critical driver has been China, which supplied 9.6 million visitors last year.”
So, with a blossoming Sakura season expected, and the eagerly anticipated Tokyo Olympics to follow – Japan banked on a show-stopping year.
Instead, a so-called “Plague Ship,” the Diamond Princess, quarantined in Yokohama harbour catalysed a year of uncertainty and economic meltdown. COVID-19 isn’t yet under control. The Olympics are on hold. Hopes evaporated of welcoming 10 million Chinese arrivals, and around 35 million visitors overall.
Ever a pragmatic nation, though, Japan has well-stocked plans for its tourism future.
These range from the rescheduled Olympics in 2021 to space trips for super-rich tourists taking off from a band new space port. Casino resorts and a theme park dedicated to the hero of Hogwarts also hint at a newly diverse Japan for visitors.
This week, The South East Asia Travel Show podcast takes an early Autumn trip to Japan to analyse the factors behind its explosive 2010s tourism growth – and discuss where its travel dreams are headed next.
Listen to the podcast: Olympics 2021, Space Tourism & Harry Potter: What's The Future of Travel in Japan?
People in Travel #2
Talking Tokyo with Maction Planet
[Mac and friend at the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan: All photos courtesy of Maction Planet]
Mac Salman is founder of Maction Planet, a Tokyo-based experiences company that opens windows into backstreet Tokyo and across Japan, replete with sushi, sake, art and sport.
Born in Exeter in the UK, he studied Maths & Physics at Warwick University before starting a career in actuarial consulting. A trip to Japan for the 2002 World Cup changed his outlook.
Mac quit his job in London in 2006 and moved to Tokyo, where he became an equity analyst in 2007. After several years of tour guiding in his spare time, he established Maction Planet.
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What impact did that World Cup trip have on you?
I came to Japan in 2002 to follow the England football team around the country during the World Cup. I stayed here for 17 days, and as a result of where the England games were spread out – the first was in Saitama, then Sapporo, Osaka and Niigata – I was able to cover a lot of the country. I didn’t have any expectations, but it changed my life. It was Tokyo that I really fell in love with. It became a focus. I wanted to leave the UK, as I didn’t want my life experience to be constrained by geography.
Why did you jump from the corporate world to travel?
I’d already been tour guiding in Tokyo for several years while working in the finance industry, at weekends and on holidays. By 2016, I wanted a new adventure, to run my own business. Travel is a big part of my life, and something that is very dear to me. I’ve travelled solo, in a couple, with friends, privately, on group tours, every combination of travel I’ve tried, from hostels to luxury. I’ve learnt from all those experiences, and wanted to present my take on travel and touring to the world.
What were your objectives with Maction Planet?
I have strong views about what makes a good holiday, so I wanted to see if those ideas would gain traction with people visiting Japan. From the touring I had done before, people had said nice things, so I was encouraged. I wanted to elevate tour guiding to a profession, and that’s still important to me. I take the job very seriously. Over the last four years, I’ve either been guiding, improving my knowledge or doing the admin for the business. Very occasionally I allow myself time to relax. But in 2019 there wasn’t much free time as I was guiding on average for six days a week, 10 hours per day!
You describe Tokyo as the World’s Greatest Metropolis. Why?
For five reasons. The two foundational reasons are safety and efficiency. Once you have those, what else is life about? The people, the food and I used to say culture, but I mean ‘things to do’. Not just tea ceremonies and swords, but also gardens and modern Japanese culture, like manga, anime and art, and football and baseball. Everything you would want to do in a city, Tokyo has it magnified and amplified.
“Everything you would want to do in a city, Tokyo has it magnified and amplified.”
How do you differentiate your company?
We differentiate by being the absolute best in every single aspect. I think you have to ask yourself “What am I trying to do as I guide?” The information aspect has been disintermediated by the internet, so you aren’t going to tell someone that a building was built in a certain year and there’s no way they could have found out that fact. It’s the stories that matter. What I want is for my customers to walk away, email their friends and recommend my tour. I want them to remember the experience for a long time.
Is it a seasonal business?
There are peaks and troughs. Typically, most of January and February is low season for Japanese tourism, but if a family asks me to guide them around for 11 days it doesn’t seem like a quiet period for me because I am a small operator. Things pick up in mid- March, then Cherry Blossom season. Summer can be fairly flat because it is so hot, ideally people would prefer to come in Spring or Autumn, but summer school holidays mean they come anyway. Autumn picks up again, December is a small lull before the Christmas season.
“I’d imagine that in the past four years I’ve toured with guests from 30 or 40 countries.”
Who are your clients?
It depends on the channel they book through. If it’s direct, it will most likely to be couples or families. If it’s through the hotels and agencies I work with, then it could be school groups, corporate groups, business travellers or individuals.
Where do they come from?
I’d imagine that in the past four years I’ve toured with guests from 30 or 40 countries. The biggest block of visitors comes from the US, because Maction Planet is rated very highly on TripAdvisor. Americans are big users of TripAdvisor, and they are also very big on word-of-mouth recommendations.
Let’s talk about 2019, pre-pandemic year. How was it for you?
2019 was a phenomenal year for Maction Planet. I never conceived that within three years it would reach the level it did. I was personally guiding on average for 6 days a week and 10 hours per day, plus there were other tours that my colleagues were running.
So, 2020 was looking positive?
It was. The cherry blossom season of 2020 was due to be the most visited period for Japan in history. Those two weeks from the end of March into early April would then be superseded within a few months by the Olympics. For all of us in tourism, this was going to be a phenomenal year. I love doing what I do, but after this year I was planning to take some time off and enjoy the benefits of running my own business.
Did you have plenty of Olympic bookings?
Yes, we did. Lots. Securing the capacity for that period was interesting, as you are competing against the big guys. All the smaller travel providers will tell you the big guys had sewn up 90% of the nation’s travel capacity three years in advance. It was a lot of logistical work to ramp up capacity, but we were set to have a big period during the Olympics. I’d spent a lot of time building more relationships and more channels that you need as a small business. I’d also been making restaurant bookings eight months in advance.
“For all of us in tourism, 2020 with the Tokyo Olympics promised to be a phenomenal year.
How is life in Tokyo today?
This is a very pragmatic nation. People really do get on with things. We call it self-restraint, jishuku – we don’t like the term lockdown which seems draconian. It is suggested to you that you wear a mask, sanitise your hands and don’t go out too much, and mostly people comply with it. All those things are happening, but outside of that you would think that life was going on as normal – only without any tourists. The borders are still closed.
This year, you’ve developed online experiences
You get to a point where it becomes apparent that you don’t know when travel will return. So, I wanted to do new things that keep me relevant, keep traffic coming through the website, which are fun and generate at least some revenue. I want to keep up the loyal base with my former clients, and for people that were planning to come I want to provide them with alternatives that keep them excited about Japan and Japanese culture.
You’ve taken food tourism online?
I tied up with a Japanese chef, and we started doing some online experiences. We just advertised through our website and social media channels – and we got some sign ups. Then people invited their friends because they enjoyed the experience of cooking together. We’ve run three different days of events, and intend do one a month for the foreseeable future, including a Katsu curry class in October.
And a Michelin starred masterclass?
The Michelin-starred dining experience came about because I have a great relationship with Chef Koji Kawaguchi. We didn’t know quite how to do it. People have signed up for a recipe, but most top chefs don’t follow a recipe closely. They are instinctive, the recipe changes subtly every time and it’s been a learning experience working with Kawaguchi San. We’ve positioned it as a premium event. The first event is on 27 September, and we’ve had to add an extra session. I’m hoping people will enjoy interacting in an intimate experience with a real culinary artist.
“I wanted to do new things that keep me relevant, keep traffic coming through the website, which are fun and generate at least some revenue.”
How has Tokyo changed since it was awarded the 2020 Olympics?
Number one is the prevalence of foreign language support. Restaurants that you’d never have conceived would have an English menu now have one. The city is transforming, it’s modernizing. In my neighbourhood, almost every building between here and the station has been modernized in the last four years. A big change is the bank ATMs, which stay open longer but some foreign credit cards still don’t always work. Post offices and 7-Eleven have ATMs that accept international cards.
Will tourists return in future?
I think travellers know this is a clean country and society, and that people have a lot of consideration for others. Research seems to show that Japan is still high on people’s travel lists. I know a lot of people in the US that if they could get on a plane, without all the hassles it would involve, they would like to be in Tokyo now. I think people will come back as early as they can, to enjoy the city before it gets crowded again.
You’ve become a baseball fan in Tokyo?
I went to my first game about three weeks after I arrived. Japanese baseball is a cross between American baseball and English football. Usually, there’s chanting, and beers are brought to your seat. I regularly watch Tokyo Yakult Swallows play because of the Japanese baseball experience, and to have a couple of beers with friends. Now, when you go into the stadium, you have to sanitise, do a temperature check and socially distance. There’s no singing, though. Some of my clients have been to a game. Either they heard about it on TripAdvisor or their friends told them. Sometimes, I say “Trust me, this is one of the things you’ll always remember about Japan.” And they do.
Feedback
Chinese National Day Holiday Predictions
It’s always great to get feedback, whether good, less good or indifferent. Please feel free to drop me a note using the button below.
Thanks this week to Maxime Tondeur, Shanghai-based founder at Explore Beyond China, who followed up on my comments (in Issue 4 ) about the hype surrounding projected domestic travel volumes in China for the upcoming October holiday.
“There are lots of predictions and numbers being thrown around, but we can't know for sure until afterwards. While there are no restrictions from the central government (just green health QR), many local governments, schools and companies have set up some sort of restrictions. Many Chinese don't want to risk falling behind (again), and therefore will stay in their hometown.”
Maxime adds:
“While many Chinese probably have booked already, they can still cancel very last minute without costs or consequences, rendering those predictions useless. It can still go either way: mass cancellations or a surge in last-minute bookings just before the October Week. Though one thing I'm quite sure of is that Chinese generally choose their safety and health over leisure, unlike their western counterparts.”
Highly valid points, and – yep – all eyes will be on those post-October holiday stats.
And, that’s a wrap for Issue 6.
Asia Travel Re:Set will return on Sunday.
Until then, you can catch me on Twitter, LinkedIn and The South East Asia Travel Show.
Speak soon,
Gary