Asia Travel Re:Set #36 - Travel in 2021: It's All About Islands
"Travel policy optimism in a volatile pandemic era is loaded with caveats."
Hello. Welcome to Asia Travel Re:Set…
At the moment, the travel landscape is all about destinations without borders.
Back in Issue #31, The Pandemic 12 Months On: 10 Shared Learnings for Travel & Tourism, I wrote:
“Free of border constraints, isolated from land-locked populations and with their own infrastructures and (fragile) ecosystems, islands are desirable and manageable destinations in the current era.”
Et voila. Island locations are dominating attempts to resuscitate international tourism in Asia Pacific.
Current activity centres around nations that are islands or archipelagos, like Australia, Indonesia, Guam, Maldives, Palau, New Zealand, Seychelles, Sri Lanka and Taiwan.
Elsewhere, countries whose geographies include islands are priming offshore spots to pilot inbound travel programmes, such as Thailand and Malaysia.
Beyond Asia Pacific, island nations are promoting a willingness to welcome visitors. Cyprus is one example, while Malta this week announced it will permit “vaccinated and unvaccinated tourists” to arrive from 1 June.
So, this week’s issue takes an island-hop through the region to check the travel reboot progress. Of course, careful planning is vulnerable to COVID-19’s extreme volatility. This cloud lingers over governments trying to unlock borders while managing slow vaccine supplies, digital health pass formats and pharmaceutical controversies.
Thanks for being on board,
Gary
The Sunday Itinerary
- DashBoard
From 68.5 million down to 3 in Asia Pacific this week.
- QuoteBoard
New Zealand-Australia travel bubble caution(s).
- Travel in 2021: It’s All About Islands
An island hop through this week’s top travel talking points.
DashBoard
From 68.5 million down to 3 in Asia Pacific this week…
SGD68.5 million: Singapore government’s pledged investment into
a Tourism Development Fund for green businesses. [The Straits Times]1.5 million: Minimum number of visitor arrivals Bali is targeting in the
second half of 2021 once it reopens to inbound travel. [The Bali Sun]152,879: India continues to break its own daily record for COVID-19 infections on 10 April. [Times of India]
8: Some 44 countries worldwide have administered 1 million or more doses
of COVID-19 vaccines, of which 8 are in Asia Pacific. [Nikkei Asia]3%: China’s April-October airline schedules show that international
flights account for a small fraction of the pre-pandemic volume. [China Daily]
QuoteBoard
You heard it here…
"Quarantine-free travel will not be what it was pre-COVID-19, and those
undertaking travel will do so under the guidance of 'flyer beware’.”
New Zealand Prime Minister cautiously announces reciprocation with
Australia for the Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble.
"People will need to plan for the possibility of having travel disrupted
if there is an outbreak."
New Zealand Prime Minister steps up the ‘caution level’ while announcing
reciprocation with Australia for the Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble.
“Just as we have our alert level settings for managing cases in New
Zealand, we will also now have a framework for managing New Zealanders
in the event of an outbreak in Australia, which involves three possible
scenarios: continue, pause, suspend.”
New Zealand Prime Minister talks traffic light caution while announcing
reciprocation with Australia for the Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble.
Source: Official New Zealand Government website
Travel in 2021: It’s All About Islands
An island hop through this week’s top travel talking points.
Maldives, Seychelles & Sri Lanka
Maldives continues to reap the rewards of its decision to commence a phased reopening last July. Almost 110,000 visitors arrived in March, pushing first-quarter arrivals above 307,000. Top 5 source markets so far this year are India, Russia, Ukraine, Germany and Kazakhstan. This week, Maldives commenced new digital promotion campaigns in Germany and South Korea. New cases of COVID-19 have slowed, with a 7-day average of 127 infections - down from a daily peak of 300 on 1 April.
Seychelles resides three hours southwest of Maldives by air. After reopening for quarantine-free travel on 25 March, the Indian Ocean island destination welcomed 3,361 arrivals in its first six days. The UAE and Israel were the top 2 source markets. The Seychelles also welcomed back the first direct flight by Aeroflot from Russia for 17 years - carrying 402 passengers and crew. Sherin Francis, CEO of Seychelles Tourism Board, told Mauritian newspaper L’Express this week, that “the best case scenario” is to recover up to 50% of 2019 arrivals in 2021, although forecasts will be adjusted given fluid global circumstances.
So far in 2021, visitor arrivals are evenly split between Asian and European source markets (see below).
Image source: Seychelles Tourism Board
Sri Lanka is revising its quarantine requirement to welcome vaccinated travellers. It greeted 9,626 arrivals in the first quarter of 2021. The top 6 inbound markets were Kazakhstan (see also ‘Maldives’ above), Germany, UK, Ukraine, China (somewhat perplexingly) and Russia. The teardrop-shaped island nation has revised down its annual target to 800,000, from 1.5 million, for 2021.
Phuket vs Bali: The Race is… On!
Image source: Tourism Authority of Thailand
The clock is ticking. An apparent race between the Thai island of Phuket and Indonesia’s Bali to reopen to vaccinated tourists continues. It's less than 12 weeks until the coveted 1 July date for Phuket, although Bali has yet to clarify its schedule.
Phuket’s three-phase ‘Sandbox’ plan would see it remove a quarantine requirement for travellers inoculated with a vaccine by these approved makers: Sinovac, AstraZeneca, SK Bioscience, Pfizer, BioNTech, Serum Institute of India, Johnson & Johnson, Moderna and Sinopharm Group - from 1 July.
Five other provinces - Krabi, Phang Nga, Surat Thani (Ko Samui), Chon Buri (Pattaya) and Chiang Mai - may follow on 1 October.
“May” is the key word.
A renewed outbreak of infections in Bangkok and other areas plus the underway Songkran travel period threaten to derail the plan. Further expected case rises would inevitably cause institutional panic in Thailand.
As the Bangkok Post writes, travel policy optimism in a volatile pandemic era is loaded with caveats:
“These [Phuket sandbox and vaccine rollout] announcements and incentives, coupled with the growing weariness of pandemic restrictions, created the illusion of security -- that here in Thailand, all is well and under control -- which led to decreasing compliance and lax enforcement of public health and safety rules.”
Pre-Songkran travellers from Bangkok in at least 35 provinces this weekend have been subject to unannounced testing requirements and other restrictions. Bangkok and 40 provinces closed bars, pubs, karaoke and massage parlours from 10 April “for at least 14 days”. Planned Songkran festivities in the capital have been cancelled. For now, however, “interprovincial travel will not be affected.”
The Tourism Authority of Thailand predicts 3.2 million travellers during the Songkran holiday.
Recommended reads:
Empty beaches, chained doors: Surreal scenes in Phuket as island pins reopening hopes on vaccines, by CNN Travel.
'Phuket Sandbox' on the back burner as the 'UK variant' spreads in Thailand, by Thai Island Times.
Vaccine a help but no panacea, by Bangkok Post
Bali is pressing ahead with vaccinating residents in three ‘green zone’ districts, Nusa Dua, Ubud and Sanur - which have been slated as the locations for vaccinated international tourists to stay. The stated aim is to vaccinate 2.5 million of Bali’s 4.5 million population by July.
This is, of course, a reboot. Bali attempted to reopen its inbound tourism sector last September, but was forced to postpone indefinitely.
True to pre-COVID form, official visitor forecasts are being rolled out. Bali Tourism Board has plucked 1.5 million visitors in 2021 out of the air. Thailand’s forecast of around 5 million (made back in January) has drifted to around 3.5 million.
Will either or both re-openings take place on schedule?
And what about those ambitious visitor projections?
Recommended read:
Bubble Bookings in Australia & New Zealand
As trailered last Sunday (Issue # 35), Tuesday saw New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern confirm 19 April as the date to convert the 1-way New Zealand-Australia travel bubble into a fully functioning 2-way corridor. This ‘open secret’ was spoiled by Air New Zealand opening bookings ahead of Ms Ardern’s late- afternoon announcement.
Cue plentiful stories about a “flight booking bonanza” and “pent-up travel demand” being unleashed. The scaling up of flight capacity between the two Southern Hemisphere island nations has, however, been impressive.
Qantas/Jetstar plans to operate 122 Trans-Tasman flights per week. Air New Zealand - which ran with the press release title “Reuniting Kiwis and Kangaroos” - will operate up to 103 weekly flights. These figures may change according to booking demand.
Meanwhile, Tourism Australia launched its tongue-in-cheek AUD3 million “Be The First” video campaign for New Zealand travellers. This is unsurprising, given Australian Tourism Minister Dan Tehan’s comment that Kiwis accounted for “40% of leisure travellers [to Australia] in 2019.” He added:
“Right now, Australia is the only international destination for New Zealanders so we are taking advantage of that opportunity to reach 3.1 million New Zealanders who normally travel overseas each year.”
In the opposite direction, Qantas adopted a carrot/stick approach for Aussie travel bookers, stating that New Zealand: “Will be Australia’s only international destination for at least the next six months.”
New Zealand took an active approach to travel with a new “Do Something New, New Zealand” video promotion featuring All Blacks rugby legend Richie McCaw.
Notes of caution were evident, however, especially on Twitter - where concerned travellers took note of PM Ardern’s warning that visitors should load up their credit cards for a possible COVID-19 outbreak. This would cause flights to be suspended, and travellers required to stay longer (perhaps, much longer) than expected.
As a sign of the times, New Zealand simultaneously suspended returnee travel from India due to the country’s worsening infection rate.
Meanwhile, The Sydney Morning Herald Traveller detected a loophole with broad ramifications: Australians could take an onward flight from New Zealand to other destinations. It noted, however, that:
“While the bubble potentially opens up the world to Australian travellers, a return journey is not so easy. In order to enter Australia under the bubble arrangements, a traveller must have spent the previous 14 days in New Zealand.”
Micronesia to Malaysia
As mentioned in Issue 34, Taiwan and Palau commenced a pilot Travel Bubble on 1 April. The first flight from Taipei carried the Palau President and 92 Taiwanese tourists who had booked package trips and met stringent testing and movement obligations. This week, Palau announced it has procured sufficient COVID-19 vaccines for the entire adult population.
Media speculation continues regarding the launch of a Taiwan-Guam travel bubble, while the Marianas Visitor Authority will reopen its office in Taipei on 15 April. Guam, the largest of the Mariana Islands in Micronesia, has been touted as a possible Taiwan travel bubble partner since late 2020.
“Guam, the largest of the Mariana Islands in Micronesia, has been touted as a possible Taiwan travel bubble partner since late 2020.”
In Malaysia, speculation resurfaced about the northern holiday island of Langkawi being used as a reopening “sandbox” (there’s that word again) for vaccinated tourists from July. Island residents would need to be inoculated, according to ‘Vaccine Minister’ Khairy Jamaluddin.
This reopening gambit comes despite domestic travel being prohibited since 14 January except in very restricted circumstances. Malaysia’s international borders have been closed since 18 March 2020.
Still, the rationale - as set out by Mr Jamaluddin - aka ‘KJ’ - merits a mention:
“The reason why we have to move bilaterally is because I can’t wait for ASEAN… If we’re going to wait for a regional set of rules from ASEAN, I think we will have to wait until we cure cancer before we’re going to get ASEAN working on this.”
On this week's The South East Asia Travel Show, we teamed up with Brett Henry, President of Jakarta-based MG Group, a leading South East Asian bed bank. Our joint webinar/podcast debated the range of tricky issues for Bali and Phuket as they prepare to reopen to vaccinated travellers after more than a year.
And, that’s a wrap for Issue 36.
Until next week, find me on Twitter, LinkedIn and the Asia Travel Re:Set website.
And feel free to send comments and feedback to gary@check-in.asia
Have a great week,
Gary