Asia Travel Re:Set #25 - Plotting Asia's 'Fragile' Travel Recovery
"We expect to receive travellers in September or October at the earliest.”
Hello. Welcome to Asia Travel Re:Set…
“This virus is just beating us all.”
I made that comment on a podcast back in September. I’ve since used it when discussing the postponement of the Hong Kong-Singapore Air Travel Bubble, and various other attempts at revitalising tourism in Asia.
This week, commenting on new, stricter measures in Dubai, Rafat Ali - Founder & CEO of Skift - tweeted that opening up to tourism runs the risk of “always being outsmarted by the virus and human stupidity.”
We have reached a strange point in the pandemic here in Asia. Outwardly, there is a kind of cautious optimism that vaccines will be the magic bullet. Confidence, though, is extremely low - and will further diminish as the 2020 stasis drags on through 2021.
Worldwide, it was another troubling week.
A vaccine supply logjam emerged in the EU along with a fire at the Serum Institute vaccine manufacturing plant in India. Norway implemented its tightest movement restrictions yet, Netherlands enforced a curfew and media rumours surfaced that the UK government may pay newly infected citizens in England to stay at home.
In the US, President Biden said it would “take months to turn things around,” and that the national death toll may top 500,000 next month. His inauguration, while pumped with hopeful premises, featured a grim, gritty address by the new incumbent.
Meanwhile, here in Malaysia, Lockdown 2.0 was extended into February. Indonesia recorded 14,000 daily infections for the first time, and already in January counts its highest monthly death toll of the pandemic.
China is incentivising people to refrain from journeying home during the upcoming Spring Festival. Hong Kong is in full panic mode.
In Japan, the government is fending off reports that it is ready to cancel the Olympics.
Moreover, scientists are expressing genuine concerns about the efficacy of first-phase vaccines to counteract mutating COVID-19 variants. And we still don’t really know about the vaccine vs transmission question.
Someone asked me this week, where along the pandemic timeline the world could consider itself to be? In percentage terms, how far have we reached between the start and end points?
One year on from the Wuhan lockdown, it would take someone far braver than me to answer that question.
Thanks for being onboard.
Gary
Each Sunday, Gary Bowerman charts the week’s key talking points for visitor economies across Asia Pacific.
If you are enjoying this issue so far, please feel free to…
The Sunday Itinerary
- DashBoard
From 40 billion down to 8.7 this week in Asia Pacific
- QuoteBoard
Hong Kong, Malaysia, Myanmar
- This Week’s 6 BIG Issues
1-Way Travel Bubble No. 2 For New Zealand
PATA Plots 3-Year APAC Travel Scenarios
Beijing Counts Down to the 2022 Winter Olympics
Cambodia Looks to India For Travel Take-Off
‘Bio Bubble’ Sri Lanka & Myanmar Partner Up
Push Ups in the Rain: Bali’s ‘Reopening’ 4 Months On
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DashBoard
From 40 billion down to 8.7 this week in Asia Pacific…
RM40 billion: The projected cost of a 1,979-acre integrated tourism project signed this week in Langkawi, a holiday island in northern Malaysia. [The Edge Markets]
USD3.8 billion: Laos has set its target for tourism revenues over the next 5 years. [Vietnam Plus]
152.15 million: Best-case scenario forecast for international visitor arrivals into Asia Pacific in 2021, according to the Pacific Asia Travel Association. [PATA]
76.74%: The year-on-year decline in visitor arrivals to Myanmar in 2020, according to the Ministry of Hotels & Tourism. [Myanmar Times]
8.7%: Downturn in Vietnam’s 2020 coffee exports compared to 2019, partially attributed to the global slump in travel and tourism. [Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association]
- QuoteBoard
You heard it here…
“Under the premise of watertight measures and stringent prevention, we don’t have other alternatives.”
Prof. Sophia Chan Siu-chee, Hong Kong’s Health Minister, explains the rationale behind its plan for a 14-day quarantine for long-haul flight crew upon arrival.
“We’re a bit patchy at the moment [on bookings] because of lockdowns, but demand is phenomenally strong. Hopefully, by about the second quarter, we’ll see a resumption in strong domestic [air travel in Malaysia], and by the end of the year the international borders will reopen."
Tony Fernandes, CEO of Malaysia-based AirAsia [CNN]
“We cannot expect large numbers of leisure travellers in this early season. We expect to receive travellers in September or October at the earliest.”
U Tin Latt, Myanmar’s Deputy Minister of Hotels & Tourism [Myanmar Times]
Join travel professionals worldwide who enjoy weekly analysis of the most influential travel and tourism topics in Asia Pacific…
This week’s podcast chats with Denver-based travel marketer and behavioural economist Sandra Thomas-Comenole about how behavioural economics can help guide travel marketers through an uncertain 2021. We also discuss the pitfalls of traveller sentiment surveys, the current state of destination marketing in the US, and the opportunities for engaging more closely with Asian markets.
— Listen to the podcast HERE —
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This Week’s 6 BIG Issues
1-Way Travel Bubble No. 2 For New Zealand
And so firstly, the good news.
Flight NZ941 kickstarted a new era for New Zealand’s inbound travel sector. It will be a very gradual and meticulously managed period, but it has commenced nonetheless.
On Thursday, New Zealand commenced its second travel bubble. A passenger flight from Raratonga Airport arrived in Auckland, ushering in a quarantine-free travel trial for residents of the Cook Islands.
Similarly to the Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble, the arrangement is currently one-way. However, there is a difference.
Whereas New Zealand residents have been permitted to fly to Australia since October 2020, New Zealand residents are not yet permitted to fly to the Cook Islands.
Hence, New Zealand’s meticulous COVID-19 elimination strategy means it is currently testing one inbound and one outbound travel bubble.
This week’s launch garnered fewer headlines than the inauguration of the Trans-Tasman bubble. Only two flights per week from the Cook Islands are currently scheduled by Air New Zealand.
The next phase will be the big step.
New Zealand media reports that its own residents may be able to fly to Raratonga - the capital of the Cook Islands, which has recorded no COVID-19 cases - by the end of March.
In the interim, the Cook Islands will complete its own COVID-19 lab facilities, and seems set to adopt New Zealand's own contact-tracing system.
And then, the big prize.
What odds on a 2-way Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble in Q2?
They seem to be shortening, but - as ever - control, or otherwise of the virus, will be the arbiter.
PATA Plots 3-Year APAC Travel Scenarios
(Source: Pacific Asia Travel Association, PATA)
Cast your mind back 18 months. if someone had shown you the above graph, would you have listened for even 30 seconds to their forecast reasoning?
No, of course not. None of us would have.
Scientists had been warning of an imminent pandemic for years, and the devastation it would wreak on public healthcare, travel, supply chains and entire economies.
But you can imagine the young economist being ushered out of the CEO’s office with an emollient “That’s a very interesting report, we’ll think about it carefully.”
Today, the updated Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) scenarios for visitor arrivals enjoy the eyes of an entire industry - and far beyond.
Released this week, the 2020-2023 outlook report is derived from a presentation given by Prof. John Koldowski, Special Advisor to PATA, at the tail end of 2020.
During the webinar, he said “we are talking about years, not months” when referring to a full regional recovery. He noted a preference to call the graph lines “scenarios” not “forecasts” due to the range of variables that may impact the figures, and added:
“The statistic are based on the best information available at the time, but things are changing every day.”
A couple of months later, the graphs look as daunting as they did during that webinar.
PATA describes the region’s travel outlook as “fragile and uneven.”
The 3 scenarios, Mild, Medium and Severe, present contrasting potential outcomes.
"Under a Mild scenario, the Asia Pacific region in 2023 is likely to still have around 4% fewer arrivals compared to 2019.”
But…
“Under the Severe scenario, that proportion is predicted to reach less than half of the 2019 volume of international arrivals.”
That ugly u-bend on the graph is a visual reminder of the journey ahead - and the shifting variables that will confront us all.
Read the full PATA Report HERE
Beijing Counts Down to the 2022 Winter Olympics
As yet more speculation swirls around the viability of Tokyo hosting the delayed 2020 Olympics this summer, the most interested observer is China.
On 4 February, Beijing will mark the 1-year countdown to the 2022 Winter Olympics - when it will become the first city to host both the Summer (2008) and Winter Games.
China’s capital will co-host the 2022 Winter Olympics with the northern alpine resorts of Yanqing and Zhangjiakou. And it wants the spectacle to be at least, if not more, spectacular than the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
“On 4 February, Beijing will mark the 1-year countdown to the 2022 Winter Olympics.”
Last week, President Xi Jinping toured both Yanqing and Zhangjiakou.
Also, event organisers announced that the National Speed Skating Oval in Beijing will be completed this month. All other Olympic venues are slated for completion in 2021.
China is currently battling cluster outbreaks in the northern provinces of Hebei, Heilongjiang and Jilin, plus Beijing. Some 90 local infections were recorded on Friday, and 63 on Saturday.
The government is strongly discouraging travel during the forthcoming 40-day Chinese New Year holiday period.
“China faces sporadic and cluster cases, meaning that the epidemic prevention and control situation remains very severe and complicated,"
said Lian Weiliang, Deputy Director of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, at a press conference on Friday.
Meanwhile, preparations continue for the 1-year countdown, which will take place just ahead of what will likely be muted Spring Festival celebrations.
Cambodia Looks to India For Travel Take-Off
These are intriguing geo-strategic times in ASEAN.
As reported last week in Issue #24, China is stepping up its rail infrastructure projects in Myanmar. It also signed new rail agreements with the Philippines.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi this week travelled to Brunei - which is this year’s Chair of ASEAN - during his mini tour of South East Asia.
Bruneian media reports that a “Green Lane” for essential travel between the 2 countries was discussed, according the nation’s Health Minister:
“The People’s Republic of China has requested for a similar green lane (such as the one) with Singapore. But safety will always be the priority.”
Meanwhile, Vietnam (last year’s ASEAN Chair) is strengthening ties with India, which is now among its top 10 trading partners, as bilateral relations with China cool.
Vaccine diplomacy will likely add extra spice.
India and China are gearing up to be among the world's largest producers of COVID-19 vaccines. And while some ASEAN countries have secured China’s Sinovac version, India will be the primary producer of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, plus a handful of others.
It’s worth remembering that most ASEAN countries are yet to secure their full inventory of required COVID-19 vaccines.
Amid this intrigue, Cambodia - regarded as one of China’s staunchest allies in ASEAN - this week agreed to launch direct flights with India.
“Flights would commence once India had brought COVID-19 ‘completely under control’.”
Cambodia’s Minister of Tourism Thong Khon and India’s ambassador to Cambodia Devyani Uttam Khobragade jointly announced that direct flights would commence once India had brought COVID-19 “completely under control.”
Cambodia is seeking new avenues to revitalise its devastated tourism sector. Currently, Indian travellers can only visit the country by transiting elsewhere.
Last year, air passenger traffic through Cambodia’s 3 international airports - Phnom Penh, Siem Reap and Sihanoukville - slumped 81.3% compared to 2019.
In addition to making travel to Cambodia easier, faster and more affordable, direct flights would likely appeal to Indian tourists attracted by Cambodia’s ancient temple ruins.
“[Prior to the pandemic], the number of Indian tourists coming to Angkor Wat increased every year,” said Cambodia’s Tourism Minister during the press conference.
One to watch.
‘Bio Bubble’ Sri Lanka & Myanmar Partner Up
This week, the Indian Ocean island of Sri Lanka and Myanmar agreed to commence direct charter flights “from mid-2021.”
Along with Cambodia-India item above, this agreement demonstrates that, post-COVID-19, more unconnected dots will be joined up across Asia’s air landscape.
Connecting the two destinations by air has been discussed for a long time, not least because of the opportunity to develop Buddhist cultural tourism between the two countries. Medical tourism is also viewed as a growth opportunity.
“The announcement came as Sri Lanka prepared its so-called ‘Bio Bubble’ reopening to foreign tourists after 10 months.”
The announcement came as Sri Lanka prepared its so-called “Bio Bubble” reopening to foreign tourists after 10 months, which commenced on Thursday.
Visitors from all countries will be permitted to enter Sri Lanka without a minimum stay requirement. All arrivals must complete a 14-day “semi-quarantine” at a government-approved resort upon arrival. For a trial period, only a small number of attractions will be open to visitors.
Sri Lanka will receive its first consignment of 600,000 vials of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines from India’s Serum Institute next week.
As referenced in QuoteBoard (above), Myanmar doesn’t expect to receive inbound tourists until late 2021, but it may countenance charter groups in capped quotas.
Both Sri Lanka and Myanmar will likely make more moves to tap new and emerging source markets to reignite their vital visitor economies over the next year.
Two of my favourite destinations. I’ll be closely tracking both in future editions!
Push Ups in the Rain: Bali’s ‘Reopening’ 4 Months On
It scarcely seems like 4 months since Bali was forced to cancel its somewhat hopefully scheduled 11 September reopening to inbound visitors.
Since then, of course, the more highly strategised Singapore-Hong Kong Air Travel Bubble also got shunted into 2021.
Although rumour waves have surrounded a Bali reboot ever since, neither of these two differentiated reopening models currently have a rescheduled timeline.
In Hong Kong and Singapore’s case, that is because of Hong Kong’s ongoing battle against new case infections.
Bali must confront two harsh realities. Indonesia continues to experience an escalation of new cases unmatched in scale and scope in South East Asia. Meanwhile, its primary source markets either have their borders bolted or are, at best, inactive.
Domestic travel to Bali has been holding up well in the interim, especially on public holidays - but this has raised questions about coronavirus management in travel. Bali’s key domestic source markets are evident hotspots.
The impact has been worrying.
On Tuesday, Bali recorded 308 COVID-19-related deaths, its highest total of the pandemic. The previous high, 306, was recorded the week before.
The Bali Beat reported that “officials are expressing grave concern” at the spike in COVID-19 cases after the local holiday which are overloading hospital capacity.
As COVID-19 rages, Balinese authorities sought to dissuade domestic travellers from visiting through February due to the prospects of high winds and floods during rainy season. This followed heavy a flash flood in the beach town of Canggu.
Also, Community Activity Restrictions were extended into February, and the authorities introduced random COVID-19 testing in malls and restaurants.
International media outlets focused instead on the deportation of a US national for comments made on her social media account, and the formal charging in the US of a suspect for the 2002 Bali bombings.
“I first spotted it in early December with police making a couple of people do push-ups in the rain.”
Simultaneously, social media lit up with images of foreign nationals doing street-side push-ups overseen by police officers for not wearing facemarks.
This, though, is not a new story.
“It actually started last August. Firstly for locals, and then also for foreigners,” says Bali-based Stuart McDonald, Founder of independent travel information website, Travelfish. “I first spotted it in early December with police making a couple of people do push-ups in the rain.”
Oh, and a dead whale that washed up on shore earlier in the week was yesterday buried beneath Batu Belig beach in front of a swanky resort.
I do miss Bali.
And, that’s a wrap for Issue 25.
Until next Sunday, you can find me on Twitter and LinkedIn.
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Have a great week,
Gary