Asia Travel Re:Set #24 – Are You a Traveller or a Tourist, or Both (or Neither)?
"The next wave of new vaccines will offer a higher level of sterilising immunity."
Hello. Welcome to Asia Travel Re:Set…
Three things I discovered this week:
1) The scientific debate about ‘Viral Shredding’. I knew very little about the ongoing studies in viral load dynamics until reading about a US male tennis player heading to the Australian Open who was permitted to fly despite testing positive for COVID-19. So I delved a little deeper.
2) India’s Serum Institute - the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer - has partnered with 4 COVID-19 vaccine developers worldwide. The next wave of vaccines it will produce could considerably improve upon the first mover vaccines - and may reconfigure global vaccine supply chains.
3) If you post a discussion item about the future of vaccination e-passports in travel, you will draw not just anti-vax ire, but bilious references to Hitler, Nazi doctrine and how evidently stupid you are for not realising that this is an obvious conspiracy.
In addition, this week I learned more about Vietjet’s ambitious investment strategy, Qantas CEO Alan Joyce’s views on Australia’s 2021 aviation landscape, and deepening strategic and transport infrastructure ties between China and Myanmar.
All - except 3) above - are featured in today’s Asia Travel Re:Set.
Thanks for being onboard.
Gary
Each Sunday, Gary Bowerman charts the week’s key talking points for visitor economies across Asia Pacific.
If you are enjoying this issue so far, please feel free to…
The Sunday Itinerary
- DashBoard
From 33 million down to 300 this week in Asia Pacific
- QuoteBoard
New Zealand-Cook Islands, Malaysia, Japan
- This Week’s 6 BIG Issues
What’s the Difference Between Travel & Tourism?
Vaccines & Social Media in Indonesia
China & Myanmar Make Railway & Tourism Moves
Qantas, ‘Viral Shedding’ & a “3-Month Setback”
India Prepares to Unveil ‘Next-Gen’ Vaccines
Vietjet Primed for Expansion
Not signed up yet?
Get Asia Travel Re:Set (free and) direct to your inbox each Sunday…
DashBoard
From 33 million down to 300 this week in Asia Pacific…
33 million: Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam forecasts a total of 33 million visitors in 2021. [VN Express]
5 million: By March, the global COVID-19 death toll could rise from 2.02 million to 5 million, according to China’s Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. [SCMP]
300,000: Number of COVID-19 vaccine doses that China has pledged to donate to Myanmar. [Myanmar Times]
SGD30,000: New minimum COVID-19 medical insurance coverage requirement for visitors to Singapore. [Straits Times]
THB300: Mandatory new tourism fee for all international visitors to Thailand. [Bangkok Post]
- QuoteBoard
You heard it here…
"Following confirmation of the Cook Islands' Covid-free status, and the implementation of strict health and border protocols, we are now in the position to resume quarantine-free travel for passengers from the Cook Islands into New Zealand.”
Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand’s Prime Minister, confirms the one-way Cook Islands-New Zealand travel bubble will commence on 21 January. [New Zealand Herald]
“If you are a healthy adult under the age of 60 and not a frontline worker, the earliest [you can expect] to receive the vaccine would be in the third quarter of the year.”
Khairy Jamaluddin, Malaysia’s Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation [Channel News Asia]
“Now with the state of emergency declared, the situation has changed. Holding the Olympics has become more difficult compared to the situation late last year.”
Dr. Atsuo Hamada, Infectious Disease Specialist, Tokyo Medical University Hospital. [Asahi Shimbun]
Join travel professionals worldwide who enjoy weekly analysis of the most influential travel and tourism topics in Asia Pacific…
This week, Gary and Hannah journey through the history of ASEAN, the Association of South East Asian Nations - which brings together the 10 countries of the diverse region of South East Asia. How will (or won’t) ASEAN help to shape the future of the aviation, cruise, travel and tourism in a post-pandemic world? Will there be an ASEAN Travel Bubble, and can South East Asia be promoted as a single destination?
— Listen to the podcast HERE —
Or search for The South East Asia Travel Show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify & Google Podcasts.
This Week’s 6 BIG Issues
What is the Difference Between Travel & Tourism?
It’s an intriguing question.
Both terms are used interchangeably in the media - and never more so than throughout the concentrated coverage of the pandemic.
Are you (in ‘ordinary’ times) a traveller, a tourist - or both? Do you travel for business, pleasure or a combination of the two? In which case, does that mean you are a partial tourist?
Do definitions actually matter?
Well they do in terms of statistical analysis. And the travel industry loves statistics.
So, this week, the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) sought to provide clarity. It’s new publication, Conceptual Guidance on Tourism Statistics in the COVID-19 Context defined its range of analytical terminology.
It noted that we tend to refer to “travel restrictions” during the pandemic, in order to account for the many reasons that people travel - including, but not exclusive to, tourism purposes.
So…
“Travel refers to the activity of a traveller, while tourism refers to the activity of visitors.”
Still confused? So what’s the difference between traveller and visitor?
“A traveller is someone who moves between different geographic locations for any purpose and for any duration. A visitor is a traveller taking a trip to a main destination outside his or her usual environment, for less than a year and for any main purpose (business, leisure or other personal purpose) other than to be employed by an entity resident in the country or place visited.”
OK, fair enough. And “visitor” vs “tourist”?
“A visitor is classified as a tourist (or overnight visitor) if his or her trip includes an overnight stay. If not, they are classified as a same-day visitor (or excursionist).”
Excursionist. Word of the week.
But that’s not all.
For travel anoraks (like me), the new UNWTO publication defines a host of other oft-quoted ‘travel sector’ phrases, ranging from “holiday” and “domestic tourism” to “occupancy rate” and “tourism expenditure.”
Really, I could talk about this stuff for hours.
Moving on…
Vaccines & Social Media in Indonesia
For such a potentially life-changing solution, the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines worldwide has been couched in performance-style social media theatre.
World leaders from the UK’s Boris Johnson to Singapore’s Lee Hsien Loong and, this week, Indonesia’s Joko Widodo have taken their jab live on TV - turning inoculation into both a prime-time TV event and a viral meme.
“World leaders taking their jab live on TV are turning inoculation into both a prime-time TV event and a viral meme.”
The doctor administering the Indonesia’s leader’s shot looked generally terrified - which, of course, makes compelling TV viewing.
But does watching a national leader get jabbed in real time encourage citizens to believe in the value of vaccines, or reinforce notions about the privileges of power?
Politicians counter, of course, by pointing out the prioritisation of frontline and ‘essential’ workers, the elderly and medically vulnerable - not just themselves.
In most countries, the roster list of priority cohorts is fairly similar.
And then there is Indonesia.
Having set a target to inoculate around 70% of its 270 million population in 15 months, Indonesia commenced its programme by including working age citizens (18-59 years old).
And social media influencers.
Yes, Instagram celebrities were included in the initial roll out to help spread the message that getting vaccinated is simple, safe and socially shareable.
The issue with social media influencers or KOLs, though, is that their skilled self-promotion renders them vulnerable to jealousy, resentment and, sometimes, their own indiscretions.
After being vaccinated, photos began circulating online of a social media star “partying” a few hours later - and evidently not adhering to social distance restrictions.
Does that mean the inoculated influencer policy has backfired?
We shall see.
Low-wattage social media outrages tend to fall away as quickly as they arise.
The real challenge is meeting an ambitious implementation target.
There will likely be more consequential supply chain blips down the line than an inoculated social media celebrity being snapped without a mask.
China & Myanmar Make Railway & Tourism Moves
Political and economic ties between China and Myanmar stepped up a gear this week.
Three significant announcements were made during a meeting between Myanmar’s President U Win Myint and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
China pledged to provide 300,000 COVID-19 vaccine doses to help Myanmar’s debt-laden government commence its inoculation programme.
China and Myanmar agreed to conduct a feasibility study for the Mandalay-Kyaukphyu section of the proposed China-Myanmar railway.
2021 was dedicated China-Myanmar Year of Culture and Tourism.
A feasibility study has already been presented by China Railway Engineering Group for the Muse-Mandalay section of the new railway.
Ultimately, this railway would connect Kunming in China’s southwestern Yunnan province (from which the under-construction China-Laos railway will also start/end) with Muse (on the Chinese border), Mandalay (Myanmar’s second-largest city) and Kyaukphyu on the Bay of Bengal - where China is building deep-sea port infrastructure and an industrial zone.
The various phases of the China-Myanmar railway fall under the auspices of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor development programme - and form part of China’s Belt & Road regional infrastructure drive.
“Chinese tourists (probably restricted by a quota cap) may return to Myanmar by the 4th quarter of 2021. Perhaps sooner.”
The USD8.9 billion Muse-Mandalay railway is expected to be completed in 2023 - which would mark the commencement of train journeys between Kunming and Mandalay.
Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Myanmar back at the beginning of 2020, and it seemed infrastructure development funding and support would be forthcoming. A combination of COVID-19 and Myanmar’s national election delayed progress.
China now appears extremely eager to push ahead at pace.
I predict Chinese tourists (probably restricted by a quota cap) will return to Myanmar by the 4th quarter of 2021.
Perhaps sooner.
Qantas, ‘Viral Shedding’ & a “3 Month Setback”
No-one could accuse Alan Joyce of not speaking his mind.
The Qantas CEO has been a prominent voice as Australia subsumed itself in COVID-era state border disputes and debates about the standard of hotel quarantine management.
This week, he scolded the Victoria state government for “double standards” over its decision to allow tennis players from countries where “the virus is raging” to fly into Melbourne for the upcoming Australian Open - promoted as the Grand Slam of Asia.
Joyce’s argument is that Victoria retains strict border curbs, even for its own residents who travelled outside of the state, yet these appear to be waived for a high-profile tennis tournament.
The headline case is that of US tennis player Tennys Sandgren - who reached the quarter-finals of the 2020 Australian Open. He recently tested positive for COVID-19, but was allowed to fly to Melbourne.
Sandgren contends that he caught COVID-19 in November last year, but has since recovered.
He presented a medical case to the Victorian health authorities that his required pre-flight positive test case was a result of ongoing “viral shedding” - ie, his body still contains some of the viral load from his earlier infection.
About Viral Shedding
A November 2020 study on viral load dynamics and viral shedding published in The Lancet in January 2021 notes that:
“The duration of viral shedding reported across [COVID-19] studies so far have been heterogeneous… A comprehensive understanding of viral load dynamics, length of viral shedding, and how these measures relate to other factors, such as age and disease severity, is lacking.”
The study concluded:
“Our findings suggest that, although patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection might have prolonged RNA shedding of up to 83 days in upper respiratory tract infection, no live virus was isolated from culture beyond day 9 of symptoms despite persistently high viral RNA loads.”
And as for Symptomatic vs Asymptomatic:
“Viral loads appear to be similar between asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2. Nevertheless, most studies demonstrate faster viral clearance among asymptomatic individuals than those who are symptomatic.”
Also this week, Qantas’s Joyce spoke candidly to the Reuters Next online interview series about the damage caused by a renewed round of border entry restrictions between Australian states.
“What we are seeing when the borders open is that people are travelling. [Before December] There was a huge increase in frequency in all the inter-state markets, and significant increase in volumes. It was a very rapid recovery.”
In response, Qantas had “started over 20 new domestic routes, which we’d never done before.”
Joyce said he had been confident of getting back to 80% of pre-pandemic domestic flight volumes, and near 100% for its low-cost operation by March 2021.
“However, this latest outbreak has probably set us back 3 months.”
Australia’s national carrier now expects to hit that 80% level by the end of June 2021, depending on the speed (or otherwise) of solving the border spats.
The airline has raised “AUD2 billion in debt and in AUD1.5 billion” new liquidity since March “so we have one of the strongest airline balance sheets,” Joyce added.
Asked about his recent comment that Qantas would require passengers to be vaccinated once international travel resumes - “possibly around July” - he said he believes:
“A lot of governments, particularly Australia, are going to insist on this vaccination requirement.”
India Prepares to Unveil ‘Next-Gen’ Vaccines
Last week’s Asia Travel Re:Set (issue #23, see here) took a brief peak at India’s COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers - who are ready to produce a vast number of vaccines for the home and global markets.
Issue #23 noted:
“Bharat Biotech, the world’s largest rabies vaccine manufacturer, has partnered with the Indian Council of Medical Research at the National Institute of Virology to develop COVAXIN. In addition, Serum Institute of India has jointly developed the COVISHIELD vaccine.”
Here are some new updates following an interview given by Adar Poonawalla, CEO of the Serum Institute, to Reuters Next this week.
Serum Institute will be the largest supplier of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, on which its COVISHIELD vaccine is based. It submitted an ‘emergency use’ application to the WHO last week, and hopes for approval “hopefully in the next week or two.”
Plus, it is undertaking “bridging studies in India” and also stockpiling manufactured supplies of “40-50 million doses per month from April” ahead of anticipated approval by the WHO for the US-developed Novovax “in May or June.”
In addition, Serum Institute will launch the Spycatcher virus “based on the Hepatitis B protein.” It has completed phase 2 studies, and is scheduled to be available in “about 6-7 months.”
“Phase 1 clinical trials will commence this month in the UK for Codagenix, a live attenuated, single dose nasal vaccine with more powerful long-term immunity.”
Finally, phase 1 clinical trials will commence this month in the UK for Codagenix, a live attenuated, single dose nasal vaccine “with more powerful long-term immunity”. This is likely to launch “at the end of the year, or early 2022.”
Overall, Poonawalla is optimistic about the next generation of COVID-19 vaccines.
“The current vaccines are excellent. They will prevent hospitalisation, and reduce the healthcare burden, but in maybe 30-40% of cases you may still be able to pass on the infection if you do get expose. However, the next wave of vaccines will offer a higher level of sterilising immunity.”
Vietjet Primed for Expansion
Successful suppression, or otherwise, of the pandemic could have a dramatic impact on South East Asia’s low-cost carrier landscape.
While the region’s largest LCC, AirAsia, has been harmed by border closures for its regional routes and Malaysia’s stop-start (currently, firmly stopped) domestic travel situation, Vietnam’s proactive suppression strategy has favoured Vietjet.
The ambitious LCC - which also has a Thai operation “that was doing well until the recent outbreak” - looks set to purchase new planes and perhaps expand its international operations in the coming months.
Talking this week to Reuters Next, Nguyen Thi Phuong Thao, Vietjet’s President and CEO, said she was proud the carrier had avoided both job cuts and financial losses.
This - combined with a raft of “preferential policies” from the Vietnamese government, such as reduced airport fees, taxes and interest rates, plus growth in freight and ancillary revenue - leaves it in an enviable position, said Ms Nguyen:
“We will invest more in 2021 in key strategic areas compared to 2020… We want to invest in our fleet, infrastructure and operational systems, as well as more staff training. Other airlines are cutting costs, we are still investing. ”
The outlook for Vietnam’s travel sector is equally promising. In addition to anticipated growth in the domestic air travel market in 2021, she noted:
“We are prepared for the return of international travel after the pandemic… the demand for trade, travel, investment, study abroad and medical treatment is extremely huge.”
One to watch, for sure.
And, that’s a wrap for Issue 24.
Until next Sunday, you can find me on Twitter and LinkedIn.
The brand new Asia Travel Re:Set website will be test-launched on 21 January.
Check out, too, the 4 The South East Asia Travel Show podcasts we’ve recorded already in 2021!
And don’t forget to send comments and feedback to gary@check-in.asia
Have a great week,
Gary