Asia Travel Re:Set #23 – Vaccines, Vaccines, Vaccines: The Race is On!
"China targets 50 million vaccinations before Chinese New Year in February."
Hello. Welcome to Asia Travel Re:Set…
Firstly, above all else, thoughts go out to the families and friends of passengers and crew aboard Sriwijaya Air Flight SJ182 in Indonesia.
“If I get the vaccine, when will I be able to travel to other countries?”
In the context of a global pandemic that has infected nearly 90 million people and killed almost 2 million, that seems like a trivial question.
Yet, COVID-19 has highlighted various political, economic and societal issues and exposed fragilities worldwide that were previously overlooked, or taken for granted.
The economic value and immense vulnerability of international travel to manmade and natural shocks fall into those categories.
Relentless media coverage over the past 12 months has directed a spotlight on the degree to which the travel industry catalyses numerous other commercial sectors.
That is not news in itself - but the scale with which the house of cards collapsed is troubling - not least because the long-term economic consequences remain uncertain, while another, perhaps more devastating, pandemic in future seems certain.
This week, the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report offered clarity for the present:
“Following a collapse last year caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, global economic output is expected to expand 4% in 2021 but still remain more than 5% below pre-pandemic projections.”
The economic scarring will be deep:
“If history is any guide, unless there are substantial and effective reforms, the global economy is heading for a decade of disappointing growth outcomes.”
Another lesson, or reinforcement, from the pandemic is just how integrated travel had become into the lifestyles of people fortunate enough to enjoy discretionary income.
Coming out the other side, economic recalibration will influence thought processes about financial risk and stability - and the role of travel - for people across the world.
“Governments, households, and firms all need to embrace a changed economic landscape,” says the World Bank.
And so back to the initial question.
How soon will vaccines reopen the airport gates for people to travel far and wide?
It’s too early to know. Science, politics and economics are yet to provide a conclusive answer.
That said, more new vaccines are coming - and the single-shot Johnson & Johnson (Janssen) version - which will publish its phase 3 clinical trial data shortly - has the potential to radically re-energise the issue.
As Chinese and US companies - in particular, but not alone - prepare to go head-to-head on vaccine distribution, the travel sector must reformat its entire modelling to account for an altered supply and demand landscape.
“Cautious optimism” is the buzzphrase of Q1 2021 so far - but there is a great deal of complexity to play out. And as we are seeing in countries like Japan, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the COVID-19 situation may get worse before it gets better.
So, in today’s issue, I’ve gathered together some of the key issues and developments around the ‘Vaccine in Travel’ debate across Asia.
Thanks for being onboard.
Gary
Each Sunday, Gary Bowerman charts the week’s key developments for visitor economies across Asia Pacific.
If you are enjoying this issue so far, please feel free to…
The Sunday Itinerary
- DashBoard
From 239 million down to -19 this week in Asia Pacific
- QuoteBoard
Myanmar, India, Cambodia
- ReaderBoard
5 vaccine-related must-reads from this week
- Vaccines, Vaccines, Vaccines - The Race is On!
- 5 Takeaways from the WHO Briefing, 8 January 2021
- The Politics of Vaccine Delivery
- Vaccine Updates
China & India
Japan
Singapore
Hong Kong
Indonesia & Malaysia
DashBoard
From 239 million down to -19 this week in Asia Pacific…
USD239 million: South Korean wine exports hit a record total in the first 11 months of 2020. [The Korea Herald]
31 days: The duration of Greater Tokyo’s State of Emergency, which began on Friday, and runs until 7 February. Other prefectures are likely to be added. [The Japan Times]
6.5%: Vietnam’s government target for GDP growth in 2021. [VN Express]
-1.9%: Year-on-year fall in retail sales in November 2020 in Singapore, as Singles Day online purchases failed to turnaround consumer spending. [Straits Times]
-19 degrees: The temperature in Beijing on Thursday, the coldest day officially recorded since 1966. [China Daily]
- QuoteBoard
You heard it here…
“I expect tourism to be operating at only 10% to 20% this year. Most tour operators have lost their skilled employees, so only those operating with 10% to 20% of their staffs may be able to restart.”
Myo Thwin, Chairman, Myanmar Tourism Marketing [Travel Weekly Asia]
“In the next 2-3 months, domestic aviation will be back to normal... Big countries like India, which have a huge domestic market, are where the future of aviation lies.”
Pradeep Singh Kharola, India’s Aviation Secretary [The Economic Times]
“In 2019, when there were more tourists, we lacked skilled workers in the tourism sector and tourism-related businesses. In the future, we will welcome high-class tourists. Therefore, we need more recognised tourism professionals… to fill the demand.”
Chhay Sivlin, President of the Cambodia Association of Travel Agents [Khmer Times]
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- ReaderBoard
Five vaccine-related must-reads from this week (click the underlined links to read)…
Japanese approval of Moderna COVID-19 vaccine unlikely before May: The Japan Times says stringent clinical trial requirements cast doubts on the country completing a vaccination programme before the 2021 Tokyo Olympics.
More frequent tests, additional requirements likely for those who do not take COVID-19 vaccine: Singapore’s Minister for Education Lawrence Wong tells CNA why the city state has decided to “build a diversified portfolio of vaccines.”
Who's on the hook if Covid vaccines go wrong?: Timely piece by Bloomberg in India assessing the level of corporate and state liability, both legal and in terms of compensation, in different countries should health complications arise.
Allergic Reactions Including Anaphylaxis After Receipt of the First Dose of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine: Analysis published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US about allergic reactions recorded during COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials in December 2020.
Businesses hope for vaccine: The Myanmar Times surveyed business leaders, including the Chairs of the Myanmar Tourism Federation and the Myanmar Tour Guides Association, about the prospects for vaccines and the economy in 2021.
Vaccines, Vaccines, Vaccines - The Race is On!
“WHO does not support the introduction of requirements for proof of vaccination against COVID-19 for international travellers.”
5 Takeaways from the WHO Briefing, 8 January 2021
42 countries are currently rolling out “safe and effective” COVID-19 vaccines.
36 are “high-income” countries and 6 are “middle-income.”
“There’s a clear problem that low- and most middle-income countries are not receiving the vaccine yet.”
“The 100-100 initiative driven by WHO, UNICEF and the World Bank is supporting over 100 countries to conduct rapid readiness assessments and develop country-specific plans for vaccines deployment.”
“At present, WHO does not support the introduction of requirements for proof of vaccination against COVID-19 for international travellers as a condition for exiting or entering a country or for travelling internationally.”
The Politics of Vaccine Delivery
This week, the excellent Talking Politics podcast reflected on the vaccine landscape. It posited that the world is navigating the early stages of the “Politics of Delivery.”
This scenario combines the myriad challenges of manufacturing sufficient supplies of vaccines, while establishing supply chains and logistics to distribute mass-manufactured shots - and administering them across borders and geographies.
During the discussion, a pertinent point arose. Governments, policymakers, WHO, COVAX and all other global actors are juggling not just a global vaccine programme, but they are doing so while the pandemic itself is raging and worsening.
The COVID-19 vaccine science, development and distribution programmes are running simultaneously with fighting to overcome rapid infection escalation - which is intensifying the pressure on public healthcare infrastructures across all continents.
“Governments, policymakers, WHO and COVAX are juggling a global vaccine programme while the pandemic is raging and worsening.”
Moreover, treating the widespread effects of the virus while seeking to eliminate it are occurring in a world of near non-existent multilateral coordination.
Vaccine development, too, is still in the early stages.
While Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Sputnik V and Sinovac occupy most of the media space, there are currently 172 vaccines under development.
More than 50 of these COVID-19 vaccine candidates are undertaking clinical trials.
“Anticipation is especially high for the pending clinical trial data from the single-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine.”
Anticipation is especially high for the pending clinical trial data from the single-shot Johnson & Johnson version, which remains stable at a refrigerated temperature.
Drilling down even further, the candidate vaccines are grouped into 7 broad scientific categories: DNA-based, Inactivated Virus, Live Attenuated Bacterial, Viral Vector, Virus-like Particle, Protein Subunit and RNA-based.
Many of these candidates may fall away. Others may require extra trials. Either way, COVID-19 vaccine science will continue to evolve. We should anticipate intriguing new developments.
At present, health ministers worldwide are unable to clarify how frequently people will need booster shots of COVID-19 vaccines. Will it be every 6 months, one year - or will new vaccines be more enduring? Moreover, clinical trials have not yet included several cohorts, including children under 16 or pregnant women.
In the meantime, here’s a roundup of vaccine and travel issues in selected countries of Asia Pacific.
The Mega Populations: China & India
Asia is home to the two most-populous countries on earth, China and India - which together count more than 2.7 billion people. They are also the two most highly prized “travel comeback markets” for destination marketers across Asia Pacific.
Both nations are demonstrating their bioscience credentials by developing COVID-19 vaccines to support national inoculation programmes, and to export overseas.
China, which approved its first Sinopharm vaccine (Beijing Biological Products Institute, under the China National Biotec Group) on 30 December, is promising free vaccination for all its citizens. The rollout began with “medical workers, customs officers, primary-level COVID-19 prevention workers, overseas returnees, and people working in cross-border cold-chain logistics and isolation centres.”
On Saturday, Beijing-based Global Times reported that 9 million inoculations had been administered so far. China is targeting 50 million vaccinations by Chinese New Year (12 February).
The National Health Commission is, however, advising people to reduce travel and spend the Spring Festival holiday “in the city where they work.”
“China is targeting the completion of 50 million vaccinations before Chinese New Year on 12 February”
In addition, China is exporting its vaccines worldwide - including a deal this week to deliver 100 million doses to Brazil throughout 2021. In Asia, Indonesia has ordered 125.5 million doses and Thailand 800,000 doses so far.
Interestingly, Shanghai municipal government announced this week that “residents who need to travel overseas for study or work before Spring Festival, are now able to make reservations for COVID-19 vaccine inoculation.”
As of last Monday, 326,000 Shanghai residents had received a vaccine.
In India, Bharat Biotech, which is the world’s largest rabies vaccine manufacturer, has partnered with the Indian Council of Medical Research at the National Institute of Virology to develop COVAXIN. In addition, Serum Institute of India has developed the COVISHIELD vaccine.
India’s first COVID-19 vaccines completed patient trials in India at the end of 2020. They were approved for emergency use by the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare on 3 January. Some experts have cautioned, however, that the scientific data remains incomplete.
So-called “Dry Run” inoculation pilot projects were undertaken last week in advance of Phase 1 of a national rollout plan scheduled to begin on 16 January.
India counts more than 10.45 million cumulative infections, the second-highest total in the world.
Japan: The Olympic Host Nation?
Having announced a month-long State of Emergency on Friday in Greater Tokyo, Chiba, Kanagawa and Saitama, Japan is facing up to a possible second postponement - or even cancellation - of the Tokyo Olympics.
On Saturday, Kyoto, Osaka and Hyogo prefectures requested inclusion in the State of Emergency.
Japan has ordered up to 540 million doses - combining the Moderna, Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Novavax formulas. This is more than enough to inoculate its 126 million population. Currently, it remains unclear when a rollout will begin.
This week, the government announced that the Moderna vaccine is unlikely to receive approval until May due to stringent local clinical trial requirements. Pfizer, which undertook clinical trials in Japan in late 2020, could receive authorisation in February. AstraZeneca also undertook clinical trials in Japan, but is yet to apply for approval.
The delayed 2020 Tokyo Olympics are scheduled to take place from 23 July-8 August.
Singapore Steps Ahead in ASEAN
On 30 December, the Lion City became the first country in South East Asia to receive a vaccine shipment. Singapore will prioritise the Pfizer vaccine for medical, frontline workers and seniors aged over 70. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong received his shot on Friday, kickstarting the administration of vaccines to healthcare workers.
Singapore has purchased a “portfolio” of 3 vaccines, Pfizer, Moderna and Sinovac, to inoculate its 5.7 million citizens by Q3 of 2021. Starting in February, Singaporeans, permanent residents and long-term residents will all receive the vaccination for free.
Speaking on Channel News Asia (CNA) this week, Lawrence Wong, Minister of Education and Co-Chair of Singapore’s COVID-19 Taskforce, said:
“For Singaporeans who get vaccinated and wish to travel overseas, that will depend on the policy of the receiving country. It is outside our control. When they return to Singapore, can we do away with the 14-day Stay-at-Home notice? We still do not know how much the transmission risk for vaccinated persons will be reduced, so those studies are still pending.”
He added:
“Even if we reach a ‘herd immunity’ or ‘collective protection’, there will still be cases of COVID-19 - and there will be more virulent pandemics in future.”
Hong Kong’s Winter Wave
An increase in community transmissions in Hong Kong in November - the origin of which was frequently cited as ‘untraceable’ - resulted in the postponement of the much-hyped Hong Kong-Singapore Air Travel Bubble.
Since then, Hong Kong has enforced tighter social restrictions and closed many restaurants, bars and public facilities, either partially or wholly, over Christmas and New Year. It is still battling to contain the Winter Wave of COVID-19 transmissions.
On Saturday, the 59 recorded infections was the highest daily figure of 2021 so far. Official data revealed that Hong Kong’s quarantine hotels recorded 40% occupancy between 22 December 2020 and 7 January 2021.
“Hong Kong plans to commence its mass vaccination programme using the Pfizer and Sinovac vaccines before Lunar New Year.”
Hong Kong plans to commence its mass vaccination programme using the Pfizer and Sinovac vaccines before Lunar New Year (12 February).
Sufficient doses of these two vaccines, plus the AstraZeneca version, have been purchased by the Hong Kong government to vaccinate the entire population.
The Halal Factor: Indonesia & Malaysia
Scrutinising COVID-19 vaccines to ensure that they fully comply with stringent Halal regulations has been a priority issue in both countries.
Indonesia, which counts the largest Muslim population in the world began implementing its 2014 Halal Product Assurance Law in 2019. It is undertaking a phased mandate for all food and beverages products to carry an official Halal certification, with other segments - such as cosmetics and pharmaceuticals - to follow.
It is the worst-hit country in South East Asia, with more than 818,000 COVID-19 cases including 23,947 deaths. On Friday - the third consecutive day of registering a record case total - new infections exceeded 10,000 for the first time.
Also on Friday, China’s Sinovac vaccine (of which Indonesia has ordered 125.5 million shots) received Halal approval from Indonesia’s Ulema Council. A final decision by Indonesia's food and drug agency would clear the path for a mass rollout.
President Joko Widodo is scheduled to receive the vaccine live on television on Wednesday to kickstart the first administration of 3 million doses. Indonesia’s BioFarma will manufacture Chinese vaccines under license.
“Indonesia has set an aggressive agenda to complete its vaccination programme by March 2022.”
Intriguingly, Indonesia said it plans to prioritise working-age (18-59) adults in order to accelerate so-called ‘herd immunity. This policy is being reconsidered.
The government is targeting inoculations for 181.5 million people, approximately 67% of the population.
Indonesia has set an aggressive agenda to complete the programme by March 2022, although health experts quoted this week by The Jakarta Post suggested this may prove ambitious.
Indonesia has appointed a new Tourism & Creative Economy Minister, and is shaping to welcome back inbound travellers - perhaps on a quota basis in Bali - in 2021.
Malaysia counts the third-highest total of infections (133,559, 542 deaths) in South East Asia, behind Indonesia and the Philippines. Daily new infections are rising sharply, exceeding 3,000 on Thursday for the first time.
The nation’s Health Director General Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah warned this week that infections could reach 8,000 per day unless stricter measures were enforced nationwide. On Sunday, he added:
"I fear the worst is yet to come… I hope all of us understand the odds and challenges faced by all frontliners."
Submerged in a new round of political infighting and governmental instability, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin is expected to announce a significantly tighter Movement Control Order on Monday.
Domestic travel is likely to be prohibited. Local media reported on Sunday that the new rules could remain in place for 6-12 weeks to help relieve intensifying pressure on the nation’s healthcare system.
Malaysia’s National Vaccination Plan is expected to be published next week, and commence in February. The nation has purchased Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines, and promised free inoculation for all Malaysian citizens.
This week, its politicians discussed whether to extend this to foreign residents and workers. The Malay Mail reported on Friday that foreign residents will be charged for vaccination.
“Malaysia is in negotiations to secure Russia’s Sputnik V and China’s Sinovac and CanSino vaccines, which would together account for 42.8% of its vaccine stock.”
Last week, the Health Director General said it may take 90-120 days to approve vaccines due to a “5-step review process.” This week, Malaysia’s National Pharmaceutical Regulatory Agency conditionally approved the Pfizer vaccine, of which the nation has purchased 12.8 million doses to be delivered across 2021.
Malaysia is in negotiations to secure Russia’s Sputnik V and China’s Sinovac and CanSino vaccines, which would together account for 42.8% of its vaccine stock.
Malaysia’s Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Khairy Jamaluddin, told local media on Friday:
"The public will not be able to choose which Covid-19 vaccine to take. The one administered to them would be indicated in the vaccination card.“
The South East Asia Travel Show kicked off 2021 with a 21-point wish list to rebuild travel and tourism. The 2-part podcast discusses a broad range of topics, including the future of national tourism boards and destination marketing, whether airlines will need more bailouts, the “Urban” vs “Nature” and “High Yield” vs “Mass” tourism debates, the prospects for vaccine rollouts, and the dreaded 14-day quarantine. Plus, why countries should strategise, not politicise, domestic tourism for the long term.
— Listen to Part 1 HERE - And Part II HERE —
And, that’s a wrap for Issue 23.
Until next Sunday, you can catch me on Twitter and LinkedIn, and at Check-in Asia.
Check out, too, how The South East Asia Travel Show awoke from its Festive slumber.
And don’t forget to send thoughts and feedback (positive, negative or middling) to gary@check-in.asia
Have a great week,
Gary