Issue #68 - Asia Pacific Starts 2022 With Omicron Border Controls in Place
New travel barriers are being erected as the region prepares for Omicron impact.
Happy New Year. Welcome to issue 68 of Asia Travel Re:Set…
It’s January. This should be peak travel season across much of the region.
Cast your mind back to a January past when it was impossible to get a seat at a Sydney harbour café, a non-photo-bombed snap at Angkor Wat or a hire car in New Zealand.
The slopes of Hokkaido echoed with shouts in myriad Asian and European languages.
[Socially distanced] space was at a premium along Phuket beaches, on Singapore rooftop terraces and in Bali’s airport duty free store.
Memories. Memories.
Just like 2021, 2022 begins with most borders either closed or very heavily controlled.
And we are back to COVID case counting.
The region is starting to confront the scale of Omicron. Australia and the Philippines smashed their daily infection records. Japan set a 7-month high. India is hurtling towards a forecast 1 million new daily cases.
Yesterday, the 10 countries of South East Asia recorded 558,345 active cases. On 1 January, the figure was 455,374.
All governments are desperate to slow the spread, and prevent the worst-case scenario: overwhelmed healthcare systems and new lockdowns.
However this plays out, we should expect major shifts in travel demand and traveller behaviour on the other side.
Thanks for being on board,
Gary
The Sunday Itinerary
- This Week’s Top 5
Updates from China, Hong Kong, South East Asia, Cook Islands, Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Starts 2022 With Omicron Border Controls in Place
New travel barriers are being erected as the region prepares for Omicron impact.
This Week’s Top 5
Updates from China, Hong Kong, South East Asia, Cook Islands, Vietnam
Some 3.43 billion domestic travel trips were made in China in 2021, up 19% on 2020, says the China Tourism Academy. This figure is estimated to increase to 3.98 billion trips in 2022.
The Airport Authority of Hong Kong announced a USD4 billion bond offer, across 5, 10, 30 and 40 years, to fund the 3rd runway expansion at HKIA and other capital investments. It’s “the largest US dollar bond offering in size of a Hong Kong issuer since 2003.”
Scheduled airline capacity in South East Asia this week was -53.6% compared to the same week in 2020; the lowest COVID-era recovery rate of the 17 sub-regions monitored by OAG. Southern Africa was the next worst (-45.8%).
Vaccinated New Zealanders will be the only visitors to the Cook Islands, when it reopens for travel on 13 January. “New Zealand will remain our only international gateway for the time being,” said Prime Minister, Mark Brown.
Is space tourism destined for Vietnam? A Thai hydroelectric power and cement production company reportedly plans to build a rocket launch site and space tourism resort in Phu Quoc by 2026…
“IN THE NEWS”
December finished in a flurry with invites from BBC World News and CNA to discuss Thailand’s suspension of its Test & Go travel programme, Singapore’s freeze on VTL ticket sales and the outlook for travel across Asia. And, yes, same shirt!
“AirAsia’s transition towards becoming a super app wasn’t an innovation—it was a recognition of necessity. To survive and thrive, travel booking companies must be centrally aligned with daily online lifestyle consumption patterns because that is what consumers now expect.” Many thanks to Xinyi Liang-Pholsena for including some of my comments in this terrific piece addressing where we are at right now for online booking in ASEAN.
Asia Pacific Starts 2022 With Omicron Border Controls in Place
Asia Pacific’s Lunar New Year holiday season is 3 weeks out. Heightened border restrictions mean intra-regional travel will be minimal.
The volume of domestic travel trips, meanwhile, depends on whether governments introduce new movement restrictions to decelerate the spread of Omicron. This is a high possibility, especially in some countries of South East Asia.
China would ordinarily step into the spotlight around now in anticipation of the Chinese New Year domestic and regional travel splurge. With its mid-winter Zero Tolerance approach tightening, China is finalising the Travel Bubble of All Travel Bubbles for athletes, coaches and officials at the Winter Olympics, which start on 4 February. A subdued domestic travel season is projected.
Looking ahead, phase 4 of Shanghai Pudong International Airport’s expansion began this week designed to make it “a global benchmark for international aviation.”
High-season optimism engendered by Thailand’s quarantine-free Test & Go tourism entry scheme (launched on 1 November) began to dissipate when applications were suspended on 22 December. This week, Thailand confirmed an indefinite suspension as it battens down its hatches to battle Omicron.
“Compromise” headlined Bangkok Post on Saturday, as Test & Go’s shutdown was partially offset (in the government’s eyes, at least) by extending the “relaxed quarantine” Phuket Sandbox programme to 3 other provinces.
11 November is a distant memory in Malaysia. That day, former Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, who now chairs the National Recovery Council, said Malaysia would reopen to international travel by 1 January 2022. Since then, Malaysia opened a quota-capped Vaccinated (air and land) Travel Lane (VTL) with Singapore, which is now on hold, announced a VTL with Indonesia but no start date, and opened a pilot International Travel Bubble on the island of Langkawi.
This week, Malaysia suspended Umrah travel to Saudi Arabia due to a high number of returnee pilgrims testing positive, and Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin said “international border controls are amongst ways to slow down the spread of Omicron.”
Ditto the Philippines, which announced it would welcome back vaccinated visitors from over 150 countries precisely as the WHO identified the Omicron “variant of concern.” Those tourism plans were promptly postponed.
This week, soon-to-depart President Duterte called the emerging Omicron wave a “National Emergency.” He also called for the arrest of non-vaccinated citizens who breach the stay-at-home order. The country saw a record 26,458 cases on 8 January, a figure the Department of Health admits is under-reported as six laboratories had not submitted test data on time.
Cambodia, which is open to vaccinated tourists from any country, is confronting low demand and scarce flight access from its key (pre-pandemic) source markets. Local media this week reported “750-1,000” daily arrivals across its 3 international airports.
Should the early-year gloom dissipate, the Cambodia Association of Travel Agents expects the tourism economy “to gradually improve from mid-2022 onwards.”
This article by Stuff in New Zealand highlights the situation in many countries. A busy Christmas and New Year season for domestic travel followed by “the tide going out” as bookings drop off dramatically.
It adds that the global scourge of Omicron means “It is not clear if fully-vaccinated tourists will still be able to travel to New Zealand from the end of April, as originally planned.”
Not a revelation, but the title of this Vietnamnet article, Reopening of flights difficult if quarantine is required, highlights another intrinsic regional problem. The drawbacks of mandatory quarantine are being felt in Vietnam, which restored flights to a handful of destinations (Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Cambodia and the US) on 1 January. Differentiated entry regulations are a proving a barrier to reopening more routes.
The cumulative impacts of Vietnam’s COVID shutout forced “at least 35% of international tour operators” to apply for their license to be revoked.
And finally…
From ‘Fortress Australia’ to ‘COVID Unleashed.’ Movie writers could not have scripted the scale of Australia’s policy turnaround - or its impact. On 8 December, Australia recorded 1,703 new infections. On 8 January: 116,025.
The biggest travel story this week was Novak Djokovic’s visa approval / rejection / pending deportation. His “medical exemption” appeal will be settled in court tomorrow, but the rancour will roll on throughout the upcoming Australian Open.
Hannah Pearson and I kickstart the 3rd year of The South East Asia Travel Show by assessing the current travel and tourism situation in (order of appearance): Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei - and the outlook for the upcoming Lunar New Year holidays.
Listen here:
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Or wherever you grab your pods!
And, that’s a wrap for Issue 68.
Until next Sunday, find me on Twitter, LinkedIn, the Asia Travel Re:Set website and The South East Asia Travel Show.
Have a great week,
Gary