Issue #66 - South East Asia Makes a Sharp Retreat From Travel
Recent reopening progress stalls as governments erect new travel barriers.
Hello. Welcome to issue 66 of Asia Travel Re:Set…
Endemicity. “Living with Covid.”
In August, Singapore’s Prime Minister outlined his vision for a Covid-resilient nation. There would be no option but to learn to live with Covid-19, he said, adding: “With Covid-19 under control, we must now refocus on the future.”
Cabinet ministers elsewhere in South East Asia began similarly talking about building for an endemic Covid future.
Consequently, travel returned to governmental priority agendas.
Border reopenings commenced, at varying degrees of scale, in Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia. Cambodia and the Philippines were poised. Laos perhaps.
And then came Omicron.
This week, South East Asia recoiled. Lengthy quarantines, more testing and selective flight bans were implemented to deter travel for now, rather than outright ban it.
Time will tell whether these represent rational responses. They are not, however, demonstrations of learning to live with Covid.
Thanks for being on board,
Gary
The Sunday Itinerary
- This Week’s Top 5
Updates from Japan, South Korea, China, Laos, Vietnam
- South East Asia Makes a Sharp Retreat From Travel
Recent reopening progress stalls as governments erect new travel barriers
This Week’s Top 5
Updates from Japan, South Korea, China, Laos, Vietnam
No Go in Japan as it stops entry for virtually all foreign visitors.
Returning concerns in South Korea as a mandatory 10-day home quarantine, or self isolation, for all arrivals includes vaccinated South Koreans who were previously exempt.
Expanded airport capacity in Hainan Island, as China opens a new terminal and runway at Haikou Meilan International Airport.
Take off in Vietnam as Vietnam Airlines operates the first non-stop commercial flights between Vietnam and the US by a Vietnamese carrier. Firstly, Ho Chi Minh City-San Francisco, then San Francisco-Danang, as HCMC is not currently accepting inbound international flights.
All Aboard in Laos as a traditional Buddhist blessing, a video speech by China's President Xi Jinping and a broadcast by Lao President Thongloun Sisoulith mark the launch in Vientiane of the long-awaited China-Laos railway.
“IN THE NEWS”
Thanks to CNA938 radio for inviting me back onto the Singapore Today show on Monday to discuss… well, what else… the developing Omicron situation and the immediate implications for travel in South East Asia.
“A huge cliff face to reclimb.” Many thanks to John Power at Al Jazeera for including some of my comments in this analysis piece about the region’s struggling aviation sector: Asia misses global recovery of air travel, as IATA condemns bans
“Even if Cambodia reopens, tourists from many Asian countries have to overcome restrictions and quarantines when they return to their home country.” Thanks to Sangeetha Amarthalingam for interviewing me for this detailed article in The Phnom Penh Post: Is Cambodia’s travel sector in for another cheerless holiday season?
South East Asia Makes a Sharp Retreat From Travel
Recent reopening progress stalls as governments erect new travel barriers.
It’s been a miserable 21 months for travel and tourism in South East Asia, but November appeared to tentatively open a door marked “Gradual Recovery.”
Thailand’s Test & Go reopening, Singapore’s VTL scaling up and declarations of quarantine-free travel to Cambodia and Philippines offered promise for the 2022 Lunar New Year. Vietnam and Malaysia implemented pilot tourism projects.
Omicron - and reflexive governmental retreats from travel - slammed the doors shut.
The above graphic, from this week’s OAG Webinar, shows the depth of the air capacity cliff-face South East Asia must re-scale. It also shows (broken green line) that regional carriers appeared positive about an upswing through March 2022.
Here are five contrasting examples from across South East Asia this week that illustrate how Omicron has persuaded governments to turn their backs on travel.
1) Back-tracking in the Philippines
What a difference 7 days makes.
Last Friday, 26 November, Philippines excitedly announced a fully-fledged quarantine-free reopening from 1 December.
Nationals from an extensive Green List of 159 countries would be permitted to enter the Philippines from 1 December for up to 30 days without requiring a visa or undertaking a quarantine period.
Interestingly, both South Africa and Botswana - which were in the process of reporting Omicron infections to the WHO - were included on that Green List.
So that was 26 November - which coincided with a developing global panic as the WHO named Omicron a variant of concern.
On 30 November, the Philippines’ Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases postponed the reopening until further notice.
2) Managing ‘Patient Zero’ Fallout in Malaysia
Malaysia’s Covid policy messaging has attained greater clarity under Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin, who helmed the nation’s impressive vaccine rollout in mid year.
Omicron presents clear challenges, though, in a country badly hit by the Delta variant.
Being one of the first 2 countries in South East Asia to report an Omicron infection was one of those challenges.
Discovering that the infected person - a vaccinated student from South Africa flying via Singapore who arrived in Malaysia on 19 November - was another.
This, of course, predated the reporting of new variant cases by South Africa to the WHO, and Omicron subsequently being categorised as a Variant of Concern.
Mr Jamaluddin fronts up in press conferences, and takes questions in Malay and English from the media which is fairly unusual in Malaysia.
He did so this week as national consternation grew about what happens next, while strong appeals were also made on social media for a full-on border slamming.
Malaysia raised its home quarantine for residents (hard quarantine for non residents) to 14 days, and banned entry from 8 African nations.
In addition, it banned entry for residents of 26 countries reporting Omicron infections for the pilot “international travel bubble” on the island of Langkawi.
It later amended this policy, so that travellers from those countries can visit Langkawi but must undergo quarantine, take more tests and wear a digital tracking device.
3) Economic Imperatives in Thailand
Discerning the kernels of rational public health policy in Thailand has been tricky throughout the pandemic.
Omicron is adding extra levels of complexity, and the messaging continues to oscillate.
Thailand will delay its planned easing of entry restrictions. This includes sticking with PCR tests rather than switching to antigen as was scheduled from 16 December. It will also retain the list of 63 eligible countries, rather than expand it.
At the start of the week, the Tourism and Sports Minister said no further restrictions were currently necessary:
"Nobody wants another border closure as it was really difficult for us to reopen the country. Our economy still suffers from the crisis, so there will be no more border seals unless we are in a very critical situation."
On Friday, the Deputy Prime Minister said rather vaguely:
"Given the lessons learned, I believe the government's containment plans are better than previous ones.”
The Prime Minister added on Friday that Thailand will not reimpose an immediate national lockdown.
Buying time, as they say.
4) All Eyes on G20 in Indonesia
And so to Indonesia, where the quarantine period for foreigners and Indonesian citizens travelling abroad continues to increase.
Having been reduced to 3 days for the purported Bali reopening in mid-October, it has since been twice raised, firstly to 7 days and now 10 days.
The new rule took effect, for Indonesian and international travellers, on 3 December.
Comments this week suggest Indonesia is firmly focused on hosting a successful G20 Summit next October. President Joko Widodo visited Bali this week, and has repeatedly stated that Indonesia should play a more influential role in global economic strategy planning. This seems a legacy target before he leaves office in 2024.
With domestic travel fairly strong to Bali and national vaccination targets reportedly being missed, the return of international travellers could be on hold for some time.
5) “Taking a Few Steps Back” in Singapore
As Omicron fears circulated, Singapore postponed agreed Vaccinated Travel Lanes (VTLs) with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.
It also introduced extra testing requirements for VTL passengers, and said that no new VTLs would be announced in the near future.
On Friday, the visitor testing policy was placed into overdrive.
From 7 December, all arriving VTL passengers will be required to take a daily antigen test for the first 7 days of their visit.
Some of those tests will be ‘self-administered,’ and others will be ‘supervised.’
Initially, this new testing regime will be in place until 2 January.
Meanwhile, more countries - including Bulgaria, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Norway and Poland - were added to Singapore’s ‘high-risk’ category.
Simultaneously, Singapore itself was categorised as ‘high-risk’ by Hong Kong - its former partner in the unrequited Air Travel Bubble initiative in late 2020.
In summary, you have to really, really want or really, really need to travel in much of the region right now.
On this week’s The South East Asia Travel Show, Hannah Pearson and I assess the developing Omicron situation across South East Asia - and discuss the outlook for the region's gradual reopening, which was gaining momentum until late last week.
Listen here:
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Or wherever you grab your pods!
And, that’s a wrap for Issue 66.
Until next Sunday, find me on Twitter, LinkedIn, the Asia Travel Re:Set website and The South East Asia Travel Show.
Have a great week,
Gary