Issue #54 - Let's Close Our Eyes & Pretend It's 2019!
Issue #54 - Let's Close Our Eyes & Pretend It's 2019!
Two years ago, travel volume mattered. Volume expansion mattered even more.
Hello. Welcome to the 54th edition of Asia Travel Re:Set…
So, that’s two-thirds of 2021 completed. Time is slip slidin’ away.
There are stirrings of travel movement in parts of the region, and a general feeling that we may be on the cusp of a ‘partial’ 4th-quarter revival of activity. Let’s see.
Meantime, taking a break from the doom-scape, let’s stroll along Nostalgia Lane.
This week’s edition looks back - not in anger - at the vibrancy of travel and tourism in the region just 2 years ago!
The travel sector adores (or did!) comparatives - measuring back data against the present landscape and future projections. This “statistical journey of growth” mindset gained momentum during the 2010s, a period of robust expansion across Asia Pacific.
It was an era when volume mattered - and volume expansion mattered even more.
The challenges of over-tourism rather than zero-tourism dominated headlines.
Presently, the race is on to pinpoint when (if?) 2019 travel volumes will be replicated.
I’ve just worked on a new 2020-24 South East Asia travel market report (more soon!) and it’s not a spoiler alert to say - “It’s going to be a very long road back.”
Thanks for being on board,
Gary
The Sunday Itinerary
- This Week’s Top 6
China, Australia, Philippines, Malaysia, Hong Kong, South Korea
- Let’s Close Our Eyes & Pretend It’s 2019!
These Were Such Good Times!
This Week’s Top 6
Uncertain messages in China where a China Daily article noted “Many Chinese people know about the travel policy relaxations in some countries and are working on plans to travel abroad in the coming months”, while Reuters reported curbs on international flights will remain “through the first half of 2021”.
De-frothing coldies in Australia, where PM Scott Morrison announced that states can restart international travel once they each hit the 80% vaccination target.
No surprises in the Philippines with confirmation that troubled flag carrier Philippine Airlines has applied for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in New York.
Cautious vibes as Malaysia prepares to end 8 months sans domestic travel by reopening Langkawi on 16 September, coinciding with the Malaysia Day holiday.
Covid concerns in Hong Kong, where more imported cases of the worrying Mu variant were discovered this week.
Virtual promos for South Korea, which bought an e-studio on Chinese mobile game Audition to promote K-tourism and K-culture to China’s gamer generation.
Let’s Close Our Eyes & Pretend it’s 2019!
A quick trip through Asia Pacific as the 2010’s travel bubble showed no signs of bursting.
“During the five years covering 2015 to 2019, the 47 Asia Pacific destinations covered collectively [by PATA] had their international visitor arrival numbers (IVAs) increase by more than 23%, adding 138 million arrivals to the collective foreign inbound count in the process.” Pacific Asia Travel Association [PATA]
Source: Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA)
The region’s 5 fastest growing countries in terms of 2019 inbound arrivals vs 2018:
Myanmar (38.1%)
Brunei (19.8%)
Vietnam (16.2%)
Philippines (15.4%)
Maldives (14.7%)
So that’s PATA’s overview of the region’s 5-year growth, but how did the first three-quarters of 2019 pan out?
Here’s the UNWTO’s assessment…
“International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) grew 4% in January-September 2019 compared to the same period last year, with mixed performance among world regions. The Middle East (+9%) led growth followed by Asia Pacific and Africa (both +5%). Europe (+3%) and the Americas (+2%) enjoyed a more moderate increase.” UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, November 2019
Hmm, and what were considered the primary challenges to tourism growth back then?
“The global economic slowdown, trade tensions and rising geopolitical challenges, social unrest, prolonged uncertainty about Brexit and lower business confidence have weighed on growth in international tourism.”
Seems like another life time.
OK, so let’s start our virtual rewind in Singapore. From January-September 2019, inbound arrivals increased 2.1% from 2018, reaching 14.3 million visitors. Average hotel occupancy was 87.2%, a figure that seems eye-watering today. In September, Singapore received 1.42 million visitors - the second weakest month of the year.
Overall, China - the world’s top outbound market - saw overseas trips increase by 14% in the first half of 2019, according to the UNWTO. Right about now, China was preparing for a bumper National Day Golden Week (first week of October) of 782 million domestic trips. In a single week! Outbound traffic was slower than previous years. That said, approx. 7 million Chinese ventured beyond the mainland. Top 5 Golden Week destinations were Thailand, Japan, Vietnam, Russia and Indonesia. Myanmar recorded (count ‘em) 436% visitor growth from China vs 2018 Golden Week. More was to come. In Q4 of 2019, total Chinese outbound trips reached 36.5 million, according to the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute (COTRI).
Next up, Hong Kong, which was experiencing a tumultuous year of street protests. Hong Kong International Airport was, however, on track to handle 71.5 million passengers during the year. At its peak, 68 flights were arriving/departing per hour.
“At its peak, 68 flights were arriving/departing per hour.”
A short flight to Japan, which was preparing to (successfully) host the 2019 Rugby World Cup, from 20 September to 2 November. It welcomed 8.678 million visitors from July-September 2019. Full-year arrivals hit a record 31.9 million. Japan seemed perfectly poised for a record-busting 2020 Tokyo Olympics year.
One of the few Asian airports to keep busy during summer 2021 was South Korea’s Incheon International Airport, which averaged nearly 11,000 passengers daily in August. That’s small beer compared to 2 years ago. Incheon handled 11.84 million passengers from August-September 2019, out of a full year total of 71.17 million. It was gearing up for a solid Q4, handling 17.54 million passengers from October-December.
Next stop: the Land of the Sandbox. Thailand received 2.9 million visitors in September 2019. The best was yet to come, though. October through December brought a stunning 10.34 million international visitors.
Boarding an LCC regional flight (remember those?) to Vietnam, which welcomed 1.512 million visitors in August 2019 - bringing its year-to-date arrivals to 11.309 million. From that total, 8.828 million visitors hailed from Asian markets.
Down Under to Australia, where August 2019 brought 789,230 visitors (including me!). This helped create a rolling 12-month total of 9.4 million inbound arrivals. Flying across the Tasman in pre-Bubble times, August 2019 saw New Zealand greet 251,000 visitor arrivals - out of a full-year tourist haul of 3.89 million.
And so, finally, but perhaps most interestingly…
…let’s check-in to the Maldives. The Indian Ocean archipelago welcomed 133,595 visitors in August 2019, a figure it SURPASSED in August 2021, with 136,819 arrivals. The intervening year, 2020, saw 7,263 August visitors. AND check out its average length of stay in 2021! Impressive stuff.
After locking out COVID-19 in 2020, the Delta variant hit Cambodia hard in 2021. A concerted vaccination programme offers hope to rebuild tourism and the economy. In Part 9 of The South East Asia Travel Show’s 2021: The Year So Far in ASEAN series, we chat with Jacques Guichandut, Managing Director of All Dreams Cambodia. Among other things, we assess Cambodia’s reopening timeframe, and plans to position the country as a single destination, rather than part of a South East Asia trip itinerary.
And finally…
Can K-Pop superstars BTS and Blackpink sell everything - from cosmetics, couture, cars and canned sodas to …. South Korean tourism? This week, I took a backstage brand advocacy tour with two of the planet’s biggest bands for the Asia Media Centre.
And, that’s a wrap for Issue 54.
Until next Sunday, you can find me on Twitter, LinkedIn, and the Asia Travel Re:Set website.
Have a great week,
Gary