Issue #145 - China & Thailand Take Centre Stage in Asia Pacific Tourism
A China outbound report grabs headlines and Thailand sets a record inbound target.
Welcome to issue 145 of Asia Travel Re:Set.
It’s all about the numbers.
Despite the persistent shadow of Covid border closures, Asia Pacific at the halfway point (almost) of 2024 looks, feels - and is - more optimistic about travel.
This week, Thailand confirmed a target of 40 million arrivals in 2024. This would surpass the 39.9 million visitors in 2019. If successful, though, it will reach that goal by welcoming significantly fewer than the 11 million Chinese visitors in 2019.
Meanwhile, Sabre released a new report quantifying Chinese outbound growth in 2024. Yep, the statistics were big. 392% big (rounded up to 400% by many media).
So, let’s follow that train of thought…
Thanks for checking-in.
- “IN THE NEWS”
- China & Thailand Take Centre Stage in Asia Pacific Tourism
A China outbound report grabs headlines & Thailand sets a record inbound target.
- Reviewing Tourism in Thailand in the First Half of 2024
In conversation with Bangkok-based Vincent Vichit-Vadakan.
“IN THE NEWS”
"What are Thailand / Singapore doing more successfully than Malaysia to attract tourists?" This question, or variants upon it, are frequently posited across South East Asia. Thailand is the region’s most-visited country, and Singapore is its most forward-thinking nation. Both are considered benchmarks to emulate by competitor nations.
A pleasure to join Sharaad Kuttan and Kam Raslan on the drive-time show of Malaysia’s BFM 89.9 - The Business Station to discuss the challenges for tourism marketing in South East Asia at the midpoint of 2024. Catch the interview HERE.
China & Thailand Take Centre Stage in Asia Pacific Tourism
“We’re going through a period of pure realignment. I don’t think we will be able to fully understand how the Chinese and North East Asian markets are recalibrating until we get the full-year 2024 data.”
“I agree, but I’m not sure we’ll get the full answers even when we have the 2024 data. These markets are still in flux, and that is reflective of the challenging conditions.”
That short exchange between myself and Deirdre Fulton, Partner of MIDAS Aviation, from the May edition of the OAG Webinar, North East Asia: Growth And Recovery reflects the complexities we are seeing across regional travel segments. China was, is and always will be hard to read. It is perhaps even more so midway through 2024.
Which brings us to this graph (from OAG’s June 2024 China Aviation Market Report).
You can interpret this in several ways, but 3 stand out:
Riding the Wave: The Top 20 markets where June 2024 Chinese international seat capacity exceeds June 2019: Singapore, UK, Italy.
Playing Catch-up: Those near(ish) to parity: Malaysia, Macao, Australia, UAE.
Behind the Curve: The outliers with large disparities between June 2019 and 2024: US, Taiwan, Cambodia, Hong Kong, Thailand.
[NB: In Chinese outbound terms, June falls between the May public holiday and the summer school holidays.]
“Back With a Vengeance”
Which, in turn, brings us to Sabre’s China Unleashed report, which this week grabbed headlines worldwide as it measured year-to-date 2024 outbound data against 2023.
The report leads with: “Chinese tourists are back with a vengeance on the global tourism stage, with a 392% surge in outbound travel booked from mainland China for 2024, compared to the previous year.”
This is inarguable.
The report is rich with eye-watering statistics highlighting that China’s outbound travel engines are running far more smoothly than 12 months ago.
It does, however, also tacitly confirm 3 key points:
High expectations for China’s outbound rebound in 2023 were irrational given the destruction of international travel demand and supply across 3 years.
China is still widely viewed as a travel market in statistical terms - whether for total visitors, air passengers or retail spending. Destinations that take a nuanced approach and segment deeply, rather than chasing the short-term aggregates, will be well placed in the long term.
Patterns of outbound travel from China are both very similar in general while simultaneously highly differentiated at the margins when compared to 2019.
[NB: As with all China reports produced by travel tech companies, it’s important to note that it is based on data analysed via their systems. It may not present a complete picture. There will be no data on Sabre’s systems, for instance, of the millions of Chinese tourists who cross the land border to Macao (hence its odd ranking below).]
Low-base Comparisons
We are nearing both the end of days and the take-off of a new era. The end of days refers to the dramatic year-on-year statistical comparisons. After a slow, progressive, return of international travel in 2023, never again will you read about a 676% growth of Chinese travel to Europe and the Middle East or a 3,000% air capacity growth on certain outbound routes.
After 2024, those low-base comparisons will be stashed in a folder marked “Initial Post-Covid Recovery.”
Some things are returning toward pre-pandemic patterns. Sabre notes: “the fastest growing routes globally for Chinese travelers in 2024 include Macao, Australia, Japan, Russia and Bangladesh”. The first 4 of those are racing to reach high-base 2019 levels. Bangladesh may be referenced here as “fastest growing”, but it will certainly not be among the “most visited” - which differentiates it from the other 4 destinations.
The top 6 Asia Pacific destinations for Chinese travellers in H1 2024 were (and remember this is according to Sabre data) Seoul, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Taipei, Singapore, Osaka, Sydney, KL and Macao. Same, same, slightly different order to 2019.
Global Rebound
Perhaps the report’s strongest takeaway is that “All regions [of the world] are seeing significant growth in visitors from mainland China.”
While this may be expected - given that travel supply chains are strengthening, the Chinese government is again promoting outbound travel through the media and demand for overseas trips is rebuilding - it signposts that China is well poised as the world’s dominant outbound market.
Thailand Visitor Arrivals Year-to Date (9 June) = 15.54 million; Ministry of Tourism & Sports
Some things are different. Ask Thailand. In 2019, it fell just short of its 40 million arrivals target (39.9 million) - a milestone it is confident of reaching in 2024. While China is its #1 visitor market, Thailand will be unable to get near the 11 million 2019 Chinese arrivals this year. It therefore needs a more diversified inbound mix.
[For China travel watchers, the Sabre report is well worth a read. Grab it HERE.]
Reviewing Tourism in Thailand in the First Half of 2024
Thailand has confirmed a record target of 40 million arrivals in 2024 - which would surpass the 2019 total. So, it's a great time to assess the year so far in Thai tourism with Bangkok-based travel journalist Vincent Vichit-Vadakan.
We discuss the upcoming Soft Power Conference, which will present a diverse vision of Thailand's future in tourism, culture, arts, cuisine, fashion and festivals. Plus, we chat about new hotel developments, the influence of TV series and movies filmed in Thailand, and preview the Marriage Equality Bill being enshrined in law and its potential impact on tourism.
Listen to ‘Reviewing Tourism in Thailand in the First Half of 2024, with Vincent Vichit-Vadakan’, here:
Or search for The South East Asia Travel Show on any podcast platform
And, that’s a wrap for issue 145.
The Asia Travel Re:Set newsletter will return next Sunday.
Until then, find me at LinkedIn, The South East Asia Travel Show and High-Yield Tourism.
Happy travels,
Gary