Issue #115 - Forget Barbenheimer, Asia Pacific's Travel Box Office Battle is Thaijapan
Issue #115 - Forget Barbenheimer, Asia Pacific's Travel Box Office Battle is Thaijapan
The Thailand vs Japan duel for regional tourism dominance hinges on China.
Welcome to issue 115 of Asia Travel Re:Set.
Everyone loves a little Hollywood hype now and again.
Last weekend, movie marketers made the opening weekend of Barbie and Oppenheimer not only a choice about which to watch, but a challenge to save time for both. This was a masterstroke for two evidently contrasting cinematic experiences.
Of course, there was one winner in terms of box office revenue.
As we sail through Q3 of 2023, Asia’s travel box office battle is Thailand vs Japan. Thailand currently leads for inbound arrivals, and it’s unlikely a huge number of tourists will visit both destinations this year. But, you never know…
So let’s follow that train of thought…
Thanks for checking-in.
- “IN THE NEWS”
- Forget Barbenheimer, Asia Pacific's Travel Box Office Battle is Thaijapan
The Thailand vs Japan duel for regional tourism dominance hinges on China.
- Reflecting on 3 Years of Tourism Recovery in Maldives
Assessing a bold tourism transition with Thoyyib Mohamed of Visit Maldives.
“IN THE NEWS”
After a phased return of outbound travel from China in H1 of 2023, destinations and tourism providers are searching for clues - large and small - about new Chinese travel behaviour and spending patterns. So, too, are Chinese OTAs, which for 3 years had to redirect their resources into the domestic market as international travel stood still. My new article for PhocusWire outlines the transformative steps they took...
Forget Barbenheimer, Asia Pacific's Travel Box Office Battle is Thaijapan
Cast your mind back to October 2022 as Japan reopened its borders. A shiver passed through South East Asia’s tropical destinations, which had enjoyed regional tourism to themselves for 6 months. Japan is the box office draw national tourism boards fear.
Two-and-a-half years of pent-up demand for visiting Japan was (and is) a clear and present danger to ASEAN tourism, notably Thailand, the region’s most visited nation.
First and foremost, both nations hold ambitions to achieve 40 million annual arrivals. Thailand fell marginally short in 2019, with 39.9 million. Japan aimed to hit the 40 million goal during the 2020 Tokyo Olympics year. We all know what happened next.
Neither country will get near that total this year. Thailand is targeting 25-30 million visitors in 2023. Japan says it would be satisfied with 21 million.
2023 is the first full calendar year of travel to both countries since 2019. An open duel is on to attract tourists from 3 key sources: 1) Asia Pacific, 2) China, 3) Each other.
1) Asia Pacific: Driving the Recovery
As we’ve been saying consistently on The South East Asia Travel Show, Asia Pacific’s travel recovery is being driven by Asia Pacific. Thailand and Japan support this thesis.
Japan received 10.71 million inbound arrivals in H1 of 2023, about 64% of the pre-pandemic level in 2019, says the Japan National Tourism Organization. (June was the first month to surpass 2 million monthly arrivals since January 2020.) The top 5 inbound markets in H1 were South Korea, Taiwan, US, Hong Kong & China. The 4 Asian markets on that list comprised 59.8% of all visitors in H1.
Thailand received 12.91 million inbound arrivals in the first half of 2023, says the Tourism Authority of Thailand. Some 9.03 million visitors in H1 (69.9%) were from the Asia Pacific region. The year-to-date total reached 14.75 million by 23 July, with the top 5 markets being Malaysia, China, South Korea, India & Russia.
2) China: Overlooking the Rush to Judgment
China is the largest source of visitors for both Thailand (10.99 million in 2019) and Japan (9.59 million in 2019).
From January-June 2023, Thailand received 1.44 million Chinese arrivals compared to 596,000 in Japan. A big factor for the 89.6% drop in Chinese arrivals to Japan in H1 2023 versus H1 2019 is that, unlike Thailand, Japan is not yet permitted to receive Chinese group tours. (Total Chinese visitors to Thailand reached 1.75m by 23 July.)
Yes, China’s outbound recovery so far in 2023 has been fairly slow - but air capacity is accelerating to key markets, such as Thailand and Japan. October Golden Week will be interesting to watch this year.
Unless Thailand descends into social chaos, China will be its #1 market in 2023. For Japan, the result may depend on the group tour ban being lifted - which is possible but not certain.
More generally, industry experts in China don’t expect a full international air recovery until early-2025, so ignore media articles rushing to judge its outbound rebound after just 6 months. China is a massive travel market that was hugely destabilised for 3 years. It will take time to recover, but that rebuild IS under way.
And, as the always readable Andy Rothman writes this week, China’s economic outlook might be less gloomy than widely reported.
“Overall, the economy is sluggish but not terrible, and household consumption seems to be gaining momentum in the last couple of months… Consumers are starting to shrug off their COVID trauma.”
3) Each Other: Facing a “Tourism Deficit”
“Country records first tourism deficit with Japan” screamed a Bangkok Post headline this week. In the first 6 months of 2023, 497,700 Thais visited Japan compared to 326,347 Japanese visitors to Thailand.
Japan’s outbound market recovery has been slow. There were 3.61 million overseas Japanese travellers in H1 of 2023 compared to 9.54 million the same 2019 period. This represents a challenge for Thailand, as Japan is usually a Top 5 visitor source.
“Japanese visitors are down on expectations, and it is a very important market for us. We have three offices in Japan, and might increase the budget for them,”
said Chattan Kunjara Na Ayudhya, Deputy Governor of Marketing Communications for the Tourism Authority of Thailand, during this week’s The Future of Thai Tourism After Covid-19 event hosted by the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand, adding…
“The imbalance can be addressed. We are not concerned. There is a downturn at the moment, but there will be an upswing.”
Reflecting on 3 Years of Tourism Recovery in Maldives
On 15 July, Maldives marked 3 years since reopening in the midst of a pandemic. This week, Thoyyib Mohamed, Managing Director of Visit Maldives, takes us back to 2020 to discuss the challenges of reopening, and a successful 3 years since. He outlines the key inbound markets and shifting visitor profiles ever since .
Growth also brings new challenges. Thoyyib guides us through Maldives’ 5th Tourism Master Plan, which tackles diverse issues, from climate impact and energy security to food waste and community development.
Listen to Reflecting on 3 Years of Tourism Recovery in Maldives, with Thoyyib Mohamed, Visit Maldives, here:
🎧 Website 🎧 Spotify 🎧 Apple Podcasts
Or search for The South East Asia Travel Show on any podcast platform
And, that’s a wrap for Issue 115.
The Asia Travel Re:Set newsletter is taking a short break. Look out for the new edition on 20 August.
Until then, find me at LinkedIn and The South East Asia Travel Show - where this week we’ll assess the top travel talking points from July.
Happy travels,
Gary