Issue #100 - 2022: The Year That Tourism Returned to South East Asia
Issue #100 - 2022: The Year That Tourism Returned to South East Asia
10 BIG questions for the region's travel transition from 2022 to 2023.
Welcome to issue 100 of Asia Travel Re:Set.
The 2022 travel conference season is wrapping up, and so is the newsletter. This is the final edition of the year – but I’ll be back fit and firing in mid-January.
This week began by presenting on stage at the UNWTO World Travel Conference: Tourism Futures Reimagined in Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia, and ended with a webinar recapping South East Asia’s travel comeback in 2022.
This is a period of reflection across the region.
Tourism is back, but (so far) on a much reduced scale than before. The cost of travel is up, currencies and consumer sentiment are volatile – BUT, thankfully, all the countries that reopened this year did not backtrack.
That may sound surprising to readers beyond the region – but the numerous Covid-era political oscillations and prevarications raised doubts at the turn of 2022.
And, so here we are - officially commencing the 4th year of Covid-19’s existence.
Yes, 2023 will be challenging.
It will be the most important year for Asia Pacific travel and tourism in modern memory. But progress over recent months has diluted, if not fully lifted, the gloom.
And that frames the “cautious optimism” often stated on conference stages this Fall.
Thanks for being onboard.
- “IN THE NEWS”
- 2022: The Year That Tourism Returned to South East Asia
10 BIG questions for the region's travel transition from 2022 to 2023.
- Transitioning from 2022 to 2023: The State of South East Asia’s Travel Recovery
Reassessing the progress made in 2022, and forecasting what awaits up ahead in 2023 with Brett Henry, President of Indonesia-based MG Group.
“IN THE NEWS”
Enjoyed teaming up with Hannah Pearson and Brett Henry for a livestream on Friday to recap the 2022 travel year in South East Asia and assess the critical factors for 2023.
Thanks to Tommy Walker for including my comments in this thought-provoking article discussing the impact of a slow recovery on Hong Kong's tourism economy.
A pleasure working with the Phocuswright team once again to produce this comprehensive report analysing South East Asia’s in-motion travel recovery - and the drivers of an expected acceleration in travel and tourism activity over the next 3 years.
2022: The Year That Tourism Returned to South East Asia
10 BIG questions for the region's travel transition from 2022 to 2023.
“Gruelling. I can’t think of any other way to describe 2021. We enter the holiday season confronting similarly complex uncertainties as 12 months ago, after shards of light briefly flickered in November.”
That’s how I signed off issue 67 of Asia Travel Re:Set one year ago.
To recap a tortuous, virus-dominated year, I produced 21 Things That Will Forever Remind Us of Travel in Asia Pacific in 2021. It proved popular. Skift even republished it.
Re-reading it now, 2021 seems like an otherworldly era. One mired in politicised border reopening concepts that frustrated pretty much everyone.
We endured sandboxes, travel bubbles and vaccinated travel lanes. Somehow, we navigated low-, medium- and high-risk country categorisations.
And yet the region remained largely closed for the 2021 Christmas & New Year season.
And, let’s not forget, 2022 began like this…
What a difference 12 months make.
The 10 nations of South East Asia are fully open. So are South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. Hong Kong is sort of open. China is approaching a difficult winter period, but the number of international flights will increase in early 2023.
Three key challenges stand out in South East Asia: the continued absence of Chinese travellers, enduringly higher priced air tickets and still-to-recover flight frequencies.
So how will (or won’t) 2023 be different?
To sign off for 2022, I’ve composed 10 open-ended questions. The answers to these global-local questions will define the overall direction of travel across the vast, dynamic and highly differentiated region that is South East Asia.
1) War
Will a negotiated settlement end Russia’s war in Ukraine, and - if so - how would this impact the global economic and regional travel outlooks?
2) Re-coupling
As the above UNWTO Recovery Tracker highlights, the Covid-era decoupling of South East Asian & North East Asian air markets has been disastrous. How quickly will two-way air traffic rebuild - and which markets will be the key beneficiaries?
3) Air
How will shifting airline strategies and capacity building, jet fuel supply and demand, the US dollar value and a return of Chinese airlines to global skies influence air fares?
4) China
What are the realistic expectations for Chinese tourism in the region in 2023, given it accounted for 22.5% of visitors to South East Asia in 2019?
5) India
India’s shape-shifting outbound market and airline landscape were notable features of 2022. How will South East Asian destinations engage Indian travellers in 2023?
6) Competition
How will intense competition for travellers from destinations like Japan, South Korea and Australia impact the recovery across South East Asia?
7) Climate
Will the travel industry effectively start to move the dial on climate impact?
8) Domestic
Domestic tourism kept the industry afloat in South East Asia during the long shutdown. But where will domestic travel fit into destination planning next year?
9) CBDCs
With the region’s three largest countries, China, India and Indonesia, pushing ahead with Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), and cross-border agreements on QR code formats proliferating, how will (or won’t) this impact travel settlements?
And finally,
10) Long View
What would a successful 2023 actually look like in South East Asia?
Transitioning from 2022 to 2023: The State of South East Asia’s Travel Recovery
2022 was a compressed year. Most South East Asian countries only welcomed back tourists in the 2nd quarter. Many markets are still adjusting to the pandemic impacts.
This week, we teamed with Brett Henry, President of B2B hospitality marketplace MG Group, for a livestream assessing the state of play for South East Asia’s recovery.
We packed in plenty of airline, hotel and visitor arrivals data, insights and discussion into 55 minutes. Well worth a listen!
Listen to Transitioning From 2022 to 2023: The State of South East Asia’s Travel Recovery, here:
🎧 Website 🎧 Spotify 🎧 Apple Podcasts
Or search for The South East Asia Travel Show on any podcast platform.
And, that’s a wrap for Issue 100.
The newsletter will take an extended break over Christmas and New Year, and will return on 15 January 2023.
Until then, find me on Twitter, LinkedIn, the Asia Travel Re:Set website and The South East Asia Travel Show.
Happy Holiday Travels,
Gary