Asia Travel Re:Set #3 - Is an 'ASEAN Bubble' Realistic?
Asia Travel Re:Set #3 - Is an 'ASEAN Bubble' Realistic?
Finally, some leadership on reopening travel in Asia?
Hello again,
It’s almost 9 months since cases of “suspected pneumonia” in Wuhan were reported worldwide on 31 December 2019. As we now know, COVID-19 was confirmed by the WHO as a pandemic on 11 March.
Border closures and travel bans have strangled demand and supply. Travel companies are fighting for survival. No-one is spared; not multinationals, not rural farm stays.
Leadership is badly needed, and some moves are afoot. China, Japan and South Korea have limited travel accords in place with some South East Asian nations. Vietnam’s proposed ‘ASEAN bubble’ highlights that progress is of utmost economic urgency.
This week’s journey takes in Singapore’s upbeat reopening approach and sports tourism in China, Japan and Sri Lanka. Plus, ongoing state border strife in Australia, Thailand says tourists must return in 2020, South Korea’s spending slump, new trains in Myanmar and cluster concerns in Malaysia.
Up ahead on Wednesday, “People in Travel” will talk to travel professionals across Asia about how 2020 has altered their perceptions, both personally and professionally.
Thanks for being onboard.
Gary
[Western Australia coastline: Gary Bowerman]
COVID-19 Throwback Quote
Remember this…?
“We have never before seen a pandemic sparked by a coronavirus. And we have never before seen a pandemic that can be controlled, at the same time. And we have called every day for countries to take urgent and aggressive action. All countries must strike a fine balance between protecting health, minimising economic and social disruption, and respecting human rights,” WHO Director General, 11 March
The Weekend Itinerary:
Travel Snapshots
South Korea’s Spending Slump
New Zealand Rescues Travel Agents
Thailand Says Tourists Must Return in 2020
Myanmar’s New Japanese Trains
Maldives Greets More Airlines
A Terrible Year for Tourism Forecasts
Updates from Issues 1 & 2
Qantas Raises Australia’s State Border Stakes
Malaysia Softens Entry Ban as Clusters Rise
Oxford COVID-19 Vaccine Trials Restart
Tourism Hotspots
Singapore Sets a Progressive Reopening Agenda
Will Tokyo 2021 & Beijing 2020 Go Ahead?
Airport Confusion & Surf Tourism in Sri Lanka
Reads of the Week
Bali
Maldives
New Zealand
Brighter Spots
Bus Mazes & Smart Masks
Travel Snapshots
Tourism revenues in South Korea plunged to a 17-year low in Q2 of 2020
New Zealand introduces new measures to assist travel agents’ cash flow
Thailand says it “will have to bring in tourists by the last quarter of 2020”
Myanmar receives new trains from Japan to upgrade its railway network
Maldives welcomes flight resumptions by IndiGo and Russia’s Aeroflot
A Terrible Year for Tourism Forecasts
2020 will be remembered as a year in which using past data to predict future travel outcomes became dysfunctional.
971 million: Predicted total of arrivals to Asia Pacific by 2024 (PATA, 21 January)
Over 50%: of Chinese survey respondents “have tentative plans to visit Europe in summer 2020” (European Travel Commission, 18 June)
20-30%: Forecast yearly decline in global tourism arrivals in 2020 (UNWTO, 26 March)
13%: Projected full-year loss of passenger demand for Asia-Pacific carriers (IATA, 20 February)
-25%: Worst-case growth scenario for Chinese outbound travel in 2020 (Tourism Economics, 20 February)
Updates from Issues 1 & 2
Although most borders remain closed, travel activity behind the scenes is frenetic. So, each Sunday, I’ll provide updates on the previous week’s features.
[Image source: Qantas]
Qantas Raises Australia’s State Border Stakes
In last Sunday’s newsletter, we addressed the mounting (internal and external) issues confronting Australia’s travel industry. With international travel currently prohibited, some state governors are also upholding internal blanket border closures.
This week, the national airline Qantas issued a petition calling for:
“decisions on domestic border closures to be risk-assessed against an agreed set of medical criteria and a shared definition of what constitutes a COVID hotspot.”
Qantas argues that different state approaches are preventing “huge pent up demand for domestic travel with Australians wanting to get away on holiday after being stuck at home.” A consistent national strategy for defining and managing COVID-19 hotspots would: “see one million people in the tourism industry, get back to work.”
Malaysia Softens Entry Ban as Clusters Rise
On 10 September, Malaysia relaxed its entry ban for expatriates, student pass holders and professional visit pass holders from 23 countries, subject to receiving official approval. Previously, Malaysia said it would deny entry to residents from 23 countries which had confirmed more than 150,000 COVID-19 cases.
Meanwhile, the pernicious nature of COVID-19 is troubling the authorities. Last Sunday, I reported that the daily average of new cases over the previous 7 days was 11.3. This week, the daily average rose to 68.1, with 182 cases alone on 11 September.
Two hotspots are Sabah in East Malaysia and the northern peninsular state of Kedah, where the case total has almost tripled since the start of August. A Movement Control Order has been re-imposed in parts of Kedah, and ferries to the holiday island of Langkawi from Kuala Kedah are suspended until 25 September.
The new clusters emerge at a bad time. Wednesday 16 September is a public holiday celebrating Malaysia Day – and many Malaysians will take two extra days leave to convert this into a long-weekend vacation.
Meanwhile, media reports suggest Malaysia’s Ministry of Health is looking to fully reopen the causeway border with Singapore for daily commuters.
Oxford COVID-19 Vaccine Trials Restart
The University of Oxford and Astra Zeneca have confirmed that clinical trials for the co-invented COVID-19 vaccine – named AZD1222 – have resumed. Trials were halted on 6 September due to a patient falling ill. [See previous article on global vaccine development here]
Tourism Hotspots
[Image source: Singapore Tourism Board]
Singapore Sets a Progressive Reopening Agenda
Spoiler Alerts:
Applications for 250-delegate MICE events accepted from 1 October
Green Lanes now in place with 5 countries
Singapore Airlines operating at just 8% capacity.
Finally, some positivity in South East Asia!
If you listen closely, the term “progressively” is creeping into discourse about easing border restrictions in Singapore.
This week, Keith Chan, Chief Executive of Singapore Tourism Board, used the term while announcing the Lion City will accept tenders for MICE events of up to 250 delegates from 1 October. He said Singapore will open up to the rest of the world in stages, initially by making agreements with countries counting similar COVID-19 infection rates.
"We will be progressively doing more and more of this, and progressively you will hear the announcements from the Ministry of Transport and Ministry of Foreign Affairs on our efforts to widen the number of countries that we can work with."
As South East Asia’s major MICE hub, Singapore wants to reactivate the dynamism that business events bring to its economy. Stringent safety protocols, plus inventive experiences, will be essential to attract delegates from other countries.
The Singapore government’s Safe Travel website also uses the term:
“As Singapore progressively reopens amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Singapore has implemented special travel arrangements with some countries/regions to facilitate travel while safeguarding public health.”
Singapore has established reciprocal ‘Green Lane’ and ‘Fast Lane’ agreements, mostly related to essential business and official travel with 5 Asia Pacific nations: Brunei Darussalam, China, Malaysia, New Zealand and South Korea. Short-term travel is also permitted to/from New Zealand and Brunei. A similar agreement with Japan is ratified this week, and discussions are ongoing with Hong Kong.
On the downside, Singapore Airlines confirmed this week that 4,300 jobs will be lost across the national flag carrier, Scoot and SilkAir. The airline’s CEO, Goh Choon Phong, noted SIA Group had raised SGD11 billion through a “rights issue, secured financing and additional lines of credit.”
He described the 99.5% fall in passenger traffic in Q1 of 2020 as “catastrophic,” said global economic growth is “anaemic,” and added there is “little impetus for the return of international leisure and business travel.” He also confirmed that SIA Group is currently operating at 8% of pre-pandemic capacity.
The conclusion was stark:
“Relative to most other major airlines in the world the SIA Group is in an even more vulnerable position because we do not have a domestic market, which, as demonstrated in many countries, is the first to see a recovery in air traffic.”
[Image source: Tokyo 2020]
Will Tokyo 2020 & Beijing 2022 Go Ahead?
Sports tourism has been one of the countless casualties of the pandemic. Globally, sports travel is a USD800 million industry, according to the UNWTO.
But this year has been a bust. The professional sports events that have recommenced in recent months have mostly been held in empty stadiums, with sports stars living and training in so-called ‘Bio Bubbles’ for the duration.
As I wrote for CNA back in late May:
“2020 was primed as a blockbuster year for sports-related travel. Tokyo was ready to host the Olympic Games while 12 cities in Europe prepared to stage the UEFA European Championships. COVID-19 shunted both major events into 2021.”
So will Tokyo 2021 actually take place?
Spoiler Alerts:
Japan planned to welcome 40 million visitors in 2020
36.4% of the public would prefer a further cancellation
Over USD12.6 billion has been invested to host the Games.
Japan has invested more than USD12.6 billion to prepare for hosting the Olympics for the second time. (The previous occasion was 1964.) Before the coronavirus outbreak, it had set a target for a record 40 million annual visitors during 2020.
The pandemic has shifted attitudes. A survey in July showed 36.4% of the public believe the 2021 Games should be postponed further, and 12.7% said the money would be better spent to combat COVID-19 across Japan.
In a video conference on 9 September, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) president, Thomas Bach said: “We remain very focused on delivering a safe and successful Games next year.” He added, however, that a vaccine “would not be the silver bullet but they can greatly facilitate the organisation of the Games.”
Meanwhile, Japan’s Olympic Minister Seiko Hashimoto said, “I feel we have to hold them no matter what.”
But, as The Asahi Shimbun wrote yesterday,
“It will be impossible [to proceed as originally planned] unless a stable vaccine is developed and produced in sufficient quantities over the next 10 months.”
It added, though, that “cancellation is a scenario everyone will be desperate to avoid.”
The 2021 Tokyo Olympics are scheduled to take place from 23 July-8 August.
And what about Beijing 2022?
Spoiler Alerts:
The 500-day countdown starts on 22 September
Beijing will co-host the Winter Games with Yanqing and Zhangjiakou
Tests events are due to start in December.
Tokyo is not the only Asian capital awaiting to hold an Olympics. Beijing, which hosted the 2008 Summer Games, is preparing to jointly host the 2022 Winter Games with the Chinese winter resorts of Yanqing and Zhangjiakou.
Beijing will commence the 500 day countdown to the Games on 22 September, and this week the IOC President said preparations are "on track and going well." China intends to start test events, for figure skating and speed skating, in December.
Interestingly, he talked up the prospect of Chinese-Japanese co-ordination to prevent further COVID-19-related postponements:
"We have also made contact with the Chinese Olympic Committee to benefit from the expertise of the developers of Chinese pharmaceutical companies to see and learn about the progress there. These will of course not only influence hopefully the preparations for Tokyo, but also for Beijing."
[Image source: Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority]
Airport Confusion & Surf Tourism in Sri Lanka
Spoiler Alerts:
Tourism earned 3.61 billion in 2019
Sri Lanka will receive USD56 million from the World Bank
Reopening to tour group travel remains on hold.
Are Sri Lankan airports open, or closed? It’s been an issue of conjecture. On 11 September, the Aviation & Export Zones Minister provided clarity:
“There is an opinion that the airports in the country have been closed. No, we have not closed the airports. They are open even now. But, we have restricted the number of flights and passengers.”
Tourism is Sri Lanka’s third-largest foreign exchange source, contributing USD3.61 billion in 2019 – despite the harm caused to inbound travel by the Easter Sunday terror attacks. On 19 August, the government postponed plans to reopen the country to tour groups from ‘low-risk’ countries. The decision is due to be reappraised this month.
This week, the World Bank pledged USD56 million to Sri Lanka to mitigate the economic impact of COVID-19. A new danger, however, is an oil slick caused by two fires aboard the MT New Diamond oil tanker, which began on 3 September.
On a brighter note, The Surfing Federation of Sri Lanka “will be the first sports governing body in the country to host a national championship after almost all sports activities across the country came to a standstill six months ago.”
The two-day event will take place from 26-27 September at Arugam Bay on the island’s east coast. Sri Lankan wave riders will compete with “foreign surfers who have been stuck in Sri Lanka for some duration, allowing local competitors to surf alongside more competitive international counterparts.”
The event may be a precursor to more sports tourism showcases in the coming years.
This week, the Sports Minister Namal Rajapaksa unveiled a five-year plan to “restructure sports and its culture in Sri Lanka. Our aim is to generate an atmosphere where we could create a sports economy worth USD1 billion during this time.”
Reads of the Week
As Bali attempts to forge a new era, we need to stop spinning fables about it and listen to Balinese: Beautifully detailed piece by Julia Winterflood for Travelfish about attitudes to tourism among the Balinese people: “Although Balinese are multi-talented, many of us feel that in some ways we’ve been coddled by this industry.”
Maldives Notches Small and Big Wins in Its Reopening Act: In-depth progress report by Raini Hamdi for Skift. Particularly liked this; “Reopening and adjusting rules is part of the recovery journey and, for a country like Maldives that depends on tourism for a third of its gross domestic product, it’s better to learn quickly on the feet than not to move and reopen at all.”
Re-thinking Tourism in New Zealand: Final part of a broad-ranging webinar series curated by the Victoria University of Wellington addressing the critical economic, political and social issues for a sustainable tourism reset.
Brighter Spots
Tokyo’s Improvised Bus Maze
For over 70 years, Tokyo’s Hato Bus has offered sightseeing tours around the Japanese capital and to places like Mount Fuji. With tourism on hold, it is converting 60 unused yellow buses into a novel attraction. The firm has created a maze at its depot by creatively parking the 12-metre-long, double-decker buses at various angles. The pop-up Bus Maze will open to the public from 19-21 September, and visitors can also take 6 specially created tours. Aboard each bus, a bespoke smoke experiment aims to persuade passengers about the power of the ventilation system, and prove that bus travel is safe during the pandemic.
COVID-19 Smart Masks
Researchers at the National Technology University of Singapore are developing a so-called ‘smart mask’. Sensors placed inside a facemask detect heart rate, blood pressure and the blood-oxygen rate through facial arteries. They also detect signs of COVID-19 and upload all the information in real time to a smartphone. Clinical trials are about to begin to interrogate if the data is robust and accurate, and whether wearing the masks might damage the integrity of the sensors. The prototype cost around SGD50 to produce, but the aim is for mass-produced masks to retail for around SGD20.
And, that’s a wrap for Issue 3.
I hope you are staying safe and healthy in these remarkable times.
Asia Travel Re:Set will return on Wednesday.
Until then, you can catch me on Twitter and LinkedIn, and over at The South East Asia Travel Show.
Speak soon,
Gary