Asia Travel Re:Set #30 - People vs The Vaccine
"Positivity about vaccine arrivals may not equate to a willingness to take it."
Hello. Welcome to Asia Travel Re:Set…
Carrie Lam. Scott Morrison. Muhyiddin Yassin.
Political leaders in Hong Kong, Australia and Malaysia were among those rolling up their sleeves this week to kickstart COVID-19 vaccine programmes.
Mr Morrison said his role was to "give further confidence to Australians these vaccines are safe and effective.” Most leaders use similar wording.
Some Australians were unconvinced. Online doubters included one claiming the syringe had been capped to prevent penetration of the Prime Minister’s skin. Accusations of fakery are also doing the message board rounds in Malaysia.
Conspiracy theories are one thing, but they must be separated from genuine vaccine scepticism, which is emerging as a priority concern for policymakers in the region.
There are many cited reasons. But an often overlooked factor may be a preference for preventative, rather than pharmaceutical, solutions.
If vaccines do bring down infection rates and hospitalisations, the conventional medical notion is that this validates immunisation programmes.
Conversely, it may highlight to some mindsets that the danger is passing, reducing the need for an inoculation. Herd immunity may not require personal participation.
In countries where total infections are low, or recovery rates are very high - Thailand reports a 96.6% recovery rate, for example - this argument gains extra traction.
COVID-19 vaccines will not solve the problems for travel and tourism. They are a tool in the hands of governments. Vaccines won't reopen borders. Governments will. Public trust will be vital, though.
Perhaps, the travel industry could get behind vaccine programmes in a more proactive and transparent way if it wants to reap the benefits.
Today, I’ve got 4 examples signposting the “People vs The Vaccine” challenges ahead.
Thanks for being on board,
Gary
Each Sunday, Gary Bowerman charts the week’s key talking points for visitor economies across Asia Pacific.
The Sunday Itinerary
- DashBoard
From 141 billion down to 1 in Asia Pacific this week
- QuoteBoard
Outbound air travel in China, Thailand tourism, ASEAN aviation outlook
- This Week’s Top 4 Talking Points
Stadium Vaccine Backlash in Australia
The ‘Fence Sitters’ in Malaysia
Thailand’s Tourism Prerogative
Taiwan: What Comes After a COVID-19 Shut Out?
DashBoard
From 141 billion down to 1 in Asia Pacific this week.
THB141 billion: Net loss incurred by Thai Airways in 2020. This week, the carrier will submit its recovery plan to Thailand’s Central Bankruptcy Court. [Bangkok Post]
600,000: Doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine produced by India’s Serum Institute shipped to Ghana - commencing COVAX’s distribution programme. [WHO]
40%: Qantas CEO Alan Joyce estimates that its international flight demand will be around 40% of pre-COVID levels by mid-2022. [Executive Traveller)
22: Total ‘non-landing’ tourism flights to be made by South Korean airlines in March. The flights enter foreign airspace, so Lotte Duty Free will offer tax-free purchases. [The Moodie Davitt Report]
1: Auckland begins a 7-day ‘Alert Level 3’ lockdown today following a COVID-19 community transmission reported on Saturday. The rest of New Zealand moves into Alert Level 2. [New Zealand Herald]
QuoteBoard
You heard it here…
“China Tourism Academy predicted that with… the effectiveness of the vaccine being higher than many thought possible, the inbound and outbound tourism market is expected to resume in the second half of the year, and recover to about 30% of the pre-epidemic year.”
Editorial by Global Times
"This year, we expect about 5 million visitors, but next year it should jump because the vaccine will have helped, maybe 15 million.”
Yuthasak Supasorn, Governor, Tourism Authority of Thailand [CNA]
“The intra-South East Asian market will become the 5th largest in the world by 2039, and the vast domestic and regional air-travel network across the region positions it well for a post-pandemic recovery.”
Commercial Market Outlook, by Boeing
People vs The Vaccine
Stadium Vaccine Backlash in Australia
Australia’s vaccine kick-off week commenced in inauspicious style.
Last Sunday, a spontaneous chorus of boos echoed around Melbourne Park arena.
Serbia’s Novak Djokovic had just won his 9th Australian Tennis Open title, and his 18th Grand Slam, by easily defeating Russia’s Daniil Medvedev.
The match was rather one-sided, but the crowd had been in buoyant spirits.
Until Jayne Hrdlicka, President of Tennis Australia, spoke at the awards ceremony.
"With vaccinations on the way, rolling out in many countries around the world, it's now a time for optimism and hope for the future," she said on stage.
No-one was prepared for the response. It was uncomfortable to watch.
"Vaccination is not a silver bullet or a complete substitute for other
public health interventions. Testing, contact tracing, quarantine and
isolation will remain in place until evidence is established that the
vaccination prevents transmission, and community coverage is achieved in Australia."
Australian Government website
Twelve months of frustration were unleashed by spectators at the state of Victoria’s strict management of COVID-19. This included a total of 116 days of lockdown - 5 of which occurred during the two week-long Australian Open, emptying the courts of an audience. Fortunately, a controlled number of fans were readmitted for the finals.
Before the tournament began, 72 arriving players were placed in hard quarantine. This sparked tensions between players, tournament organisers, politicians and the public.
It was the word “vaccinations,” though, that appeared to spark the fans’ outrage. The Victorian government also received loud heckling when Ms Hrdlicka acknowledged its support in hosting the tournament - known as the Grand Slam of Asia Pacific.
Also this week, Australia’s “zero tolerance” COVID-19 strategy came under fire in an article by two epidemiologists in the Australian Financial Review. “If zero Covid-19 is this endgame, then international travel is years away,” said the authors.
Meanwhile, a survey published by ABC News showed that 42% of respondents do not know how accessible their vaccination centre will be, while 8% said they had little or no trust in healthcare providers administering the vaccine.
A COVID-19 vaccine error - whereby 2 elderly care residents in Queensland received a higher than recommended dose of the Pfizer vaccine - caused further jitters.
New South Wales state governor Gladys Berejiklian, though, was unequivocal:
“If you’re in the minority who don’t want the vaccine, think twice about it.”
Finally, 42% of respondents were “not at all confident” that being vaccinated will enable them to travel overseas in 2021.
These figures are real-time snapshots. They will likely change. For now, they influence how people plan and spend, and low positivity will be reflected in the travel economy.
The ‘Fence Sitters’ in Malaysia
#LindungDiriLindungSemua.
Malaysia’s most ubiquitous hashtag du jour translates as Protect Yourself, Protect Everyone. The official slogan of the vaccine rollout, it is hard to avoid right now.
As a COVAX member, Malaysia received its first shipment this week, and - as mentioned above - the inoculation programme began with the prime minister. Initially, Malaysia planned to vaccinate around 70% of its 32.7 million population by February 2022, but hopes are being expressed to reach this target by the end of 2021.
That goal will require sustained efforts to overcome public anxiety. The government and the media are well aware that a large number of Malaysians appear - initially, at least - reluctant to roll up their sleeve.
This week, Khairy Jamaluddin, Malaysia’s Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation - who is coordinating the immunisation programme - told Channel News Asia that he is “not concerned about the anti-vaxxers, but those who are on the fence.” He added:
“We’ve been running the numbers, and it has gone up from 67% to now close to 80%” of Malaysians who are positive about the arrival of the vaccine.”
Being positive about the arrival, though, does not equate to being willing to take it.
Malaysian nationals and foreign residents can register for a free vaccine using the MySejahtera app - the same one we have been using for months to scan a QR code every time we enter a building or a Grab ride-hailing car.
App traffic has been pretty slow. By Friday, only 1.065 million people had registered.
There are 5 primary reasons that people I have spoken to here cite for their “wait and see” approach before committing to getting a jab.
The first is concern about the speed that vaccines were developed, and secondly the risk of side effects. Thirdly, is the issue of halal certification.
Malaysia’s government hopes that a swift initial phase rollout backed by data may assuage these fears.
Reason 4 and 5 may provide tougher hurdles to jump.
The 4th (and currently widespread) contention is that because the Prime Minister was administered the Pfizer vaccine, this must be the safest option. Not all areas of Malaysia will be offered this vaccine, so a fear of alternative options is elevated.
And finally, some people say that the state’s unstinting Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) campaigns have convinced them how best to manage personal risk. Throughout the pandemic, they have relied on frequent hand cleansing, social distancing, QR code tracking and, above all, wearing a face mask in public.
Having not contracted COVID-19 when case numbers were highest in late-2020/early 2021, they are unwilling to take an invasive pharmaceutical solution while infections are falling - and will likely continue to fall as the inoculation programme gathers pace.
Meanwhile, the government is scaling up its efforts to coax the ‘fence sitters’ into rethinking the aversion to being vaccinated.
On Friday, the Health Director General refused to rule out “action being taken” against citizens who do not attend a vaccine appointment. Warnings have also been issued about spreading of false inoculation information via social media.
And the kicker.
The Health DG added that inter-state travel may not be permitted until vaccinations reach the targeted 70% herd immunity threshold.
Carrot vs Stick.
COVID-19 vaccine programmes are stepping up in Asia Pacific, as is optimism about border unblocks. But, how will governments use inoculations to revitalise travel?
This week, we debate the latest reopening plans in South East Asia and beyond. These include moves to greet vaccinated tourists in Thailand, Bali’s ‘COVID-free Corridor’ and a reboot of the Singapore-Hong Kong Air Travel Bubble. Plus, India’s ‘Calibrated’ reopening, ‘Bio Bubble’ tourism in Sri Lanka and ‘Vaccine-to-Go’ in Cuba.
- Click here to listen to the podcast
Thailand’s Tourism Prerogative
It’s evident that tourism is vital to Thailand. The slump from 39.9 million visitors in 2019 to 6.7 million (mostly in the first 2 months of the year) in 2020, hit consumer spending hard. The impact on travel and tourism livelihoods has been severe.
Hence, Thailand is proactively planning a tourism reopening - or, at least, a partial, protocol-heavy reboot. The pandemic-era healthcare and logistical constraints mean that near-40 million visitor milestone in 2019 will not be replicated anytime soon.
The National Economic and Social Development Council is targeting 23 million visitors in 2022. The Tourism Authority of Thailand estimates around 15 million.
In truth, no-one has any idea, but all target figures will rely on swift and successful vaccine rollouts in Thailand and in key visitor source markets.
Thailand received its first shipment of Sinovac this week - but the messaging appears to be outpacing immunisation policy implementation.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand says it is working on a plan to welcome vaccinated travellers from the third quarter of 2021. Thai airports will now permit transit flights.
Thailand’s government has purchased a substantial quantity of vaccines, and its own institutes are making progress to develop their own versions.
Similar to neighbouring countries, though, Thailand is facing public unease about the jabs - even though it wants to aggressively push forward with a rollout in March.
Indeed, the 66-year-old Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha even volunteered to take the first Sinovac shot in Thailand to convince people of its safety - even though national guidelines do not recommend it for anyone aged over 60.
Taiwan: What Comes After a COVID-19 Shut Out?
Numerous scientific and academic studies have acclaimed Taiwan’s ‘COVID Shut-out’
strategy. A sustained and systematic testing programme plus rigorous tracking and isolating have delivered impressive results. The island state - located off the southeast coast of China - has recorded a total of just 951 cases and 9 deaths.
Successful containment resulting in low COVID-19 case incidence and a high recovery rate, plus geo-political issues, present problems for vaccination efforts, however.
Added to the mix, Taiwan is developing 2 home-grown vaccines which are currently undergoing phase 2 clinical trials. Taiwan hopes to begin administering these vaccines, developed by Medigen Vaccine Biologics and United Biomedical, in July.
Trust in these options may prove more robust than for imported versions, and Taiwan is flat-out refusing to buy from China. This week local media cited "The lack of science-backed data, legality issues, and low public confidence have proven obstacles for the introduction of China-made coronavirus vaccines".
Taiwan has purchased around 20 million imported doses, including AstraZeneca and Moderna.
It may utilise at least 15 million doses of its own vaccines to supplement the national inoculation programme this year.
Taiwan News cited a survey that 54% would prefer to take a Taiwanese version, with 31.8% for a US/European vaccine and 1.3% for a Chinese vaccine.
Concerns are being raised, however, that imported vaccine supplies may be slow.
Overall, confidence in COVID-19 vaccines is low. Only 60.3% of people said they would take a vaccine if it was provided free, while 32.7% said they would not.
Only 7% say they are undecided.
This means creative campaigning will be needed about the efficacy and safety of home-grown vaccines to persuade the 40% of the population that is currently opposed to or undecided about taking a jab.
Perhaps part of a 'carrot and stick' approach is the re-admittance of international visitors. From this week, Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport will resume transit flights. Taiwan will also allow entry to "Special Entry Permit" holders from overseas, plus Chinese, Hong Kong and Macau residents.
As a sign of the times, the fine print requires close inspection.
A clean pre-flight PCR test and 14-day quarantine are among the stipulations.
And, that’s a wrap for Issue 30.
Until next week, I will be on Twitter, LinkedIn and the Asia Travel Re:Set website.
And feel free to ship comments and feedback to gary@check-in.asia
Have a great week,
Gary